Still need ten Senate seats.
If we can hold the ones Nate has us winning, and then add Hagan, Franken, and Lunsford, we'll have made it to 60 if you count Lieberman. I kind of think Obama's going to at least get close enough in NC to allow Hagan to pull it off. And I kind of think Franken's going to pull it off in Minnesota.
Lunsford's race in Kentucky will be tough, but the capacity is there. He ought to hammer McConnell on the economy and Wall Street.
Need Musgrove to come through in Mississippi to get to 61. We already know from polling that it can be done, but it's a damned hard one.
Things are moving though. Watch the race in Georgia between Chambliss and Martin. I think the race tightening there, if it does, will be what tells you we've got a real shot at 60 seats (without Lieberman). I don't think we can win that seat, but a loss in the mid- to high-single digits probably means we get the above ones. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Second, if you look at the map on Pollster.com (here) and look at the solid McCain states (2 Senators per state) that translates into a bedrock of 35 GOP Senate seats with a potential maximum of 40.
There's very little slop available.
Kay Hagan, for example, shot up to a six-point lead in North Carolina while Obama began coming in at a tie or perhaps a slight lead. My guess is that Hagan may be approaching double digits now, and that Obama might -- might -- be seeing something akin to the Virginia numbers from last week.
Certainly if Obama wins the state, I expect Hagan to win handily. All he's really got to do is keep it close enough to the point that he can't drag on her at all. She might even help him get over the finish line. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
