Second, if you look at the map on Pollster.com (here) and look at the solid McCain states (2 Senators per state) that translates into a bedrock of 35 GOP Senate seats with a potential maximum of 40.

There's very little slop available.

Kay Hagan, for example, shot up to a six-point lead in North Carolina while Obama began coming in at a tie or perhaps a slight lead.  My guess is that Hagan may be approaching double digits now, and that Obama might -- might -- be seeing something akin to the Virginia numbers from last week.

Certainly if Obama wins the state, I expect Hagan to win handily.  All he's really got to do is keep it close enough to the point that he can't drag on her at all.  She might even help him get over the finish line.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin