They have:
Solid Dem: 229 EVs.
Battleground:
Colorado (9,) Florida (27,) Indiana (11,) Minnesota (10,) New Hampshire (3,) Nevada (5,) Ohio (20,) Pennsylvania (21,) Virginia (13) for a total of 119 EVs.
Need to tip:
Missouri (11) and W. Virginia (5) for 16.
Outside Chance:
Montana (3,) North Dakota (3,) and Nebraska 2nd Congressional (1) for 7.
Giving an estimated Upper Limit of 371 EVs as of today.
In theory Obama could take Texas (34) and Arizona (10) with a massive AA turnout and if the Latino vote swings hard for a grand total of 415 EVs. But that, as far as I can see is it.
It gets tougher after that, but that gets us to 286.
I think we're better than 50/50 to take Nevada. That brings us to 291.
The rest -- your guess is as good as mine. We'd need about 75% of the Latino vote to put Tejas in play and balance out the white vote. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
