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It's not misinterpretation. It's sharks jumping on a bandwagon (can sharks jump on bandwagons? - never mind...) yelling 'MONEY!!!!' and pushing prices up as high as they can.

At some point future pricing and guesses about likely returns stop being convincing and the house of cards collapses.

Bubbles are - literally - a confidence trick.

There are some excellent post dot-com bubble books doing the rounds. In one of them someone persuades an investor to 'buy the internet' and sells them a CD of content for a few million.

That's not misinterpretation, that's trying it on and getting it away with it because some investors are stupid.

The dot com bubble was very public, and the con trick was extended to most of the population. Likewise for the housing bubble.

The oil bubble has very few players and isn't public at all, so we have no idea what's going on. But when you get a price spike of 50-75% over a short time, and no one is entirely sure where some of the physical oil is, that looks very bubble-ish from the outside.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 09:09:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bubbles are - literally - a confidence trick.

Yes, but not always and not only.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 09:26:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant both meanings of confidence.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 09:51:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 09:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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