This thing may be over more quickly than we think.
One problem he has solved is enthusiasm. Palin has done that. At the same time she cemented her image as Caribou Barbie, gun-totin' Attack Witch of the North. That's NOT an image that resonates outside of their base. They can't walk that back. They can't do much to change it. They can only nuance it, a bit, while hoping the Obama campaign -- so far the best presidential campaign I've ever seen -- massively screws up their response.
So they got the base, now what?
McCain can't win with just the base so they have to figure-out a strategy to win back some of the Middle. Tonight McCain, a lousy speaker, has to feed the enthusiasm of the while winning over Undecideds. This is unopposed camera-time they've got. They can put anything out without fear of immediate contradiction. But what to do with it?
Tune in to find out.
It's apparent Rove is now in charge of the message. We can be pretty sure the speech is going to be long on attack politics, short on policy politics. Rove neither knows, nor understands, policy. OK that's more red meat for the base. Does it do anything for the Undecideds or convince Democrats? Not if the Palin response carries across. Which it should. Rove is pushing his standard line which everyone has long ago made-up their minds about. And its been rejected, by and large.
They may be smart enough to bring McCain to the Middle but even there he has to be 'Right' enough to keep the base from thinking he's selling them out and appeal to the Middle. I don't think it can be done. We'll see.
At this point, 42% of registered voters say they are certain to vote for Obama, up from 36% immediately before the convention. Thirty-seven percent are now committed to McCain, up slightly from 34%. Thus, with 79% of voters committed to one candidate or the other, 21% are "swing voters" who could vote for either candidate or for a third-party candidate. <snip> To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
<snip>
To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
Once again it is the Swing Voters who will decide our next President.
That breakdown on undecideds, given today's 49-42 result, would give you 53-47 roughly. If they continue going 2-to-1 for Obama, it gives you 56-44. (I'm stealing these projections from a guy at OpenLeft, for the record, so anything incorrect in that math should be blamed on him, and I take no responsibility.)
54-46 feels like the right result right now. That'd give Obama the three obvious swing states (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado), along with likely Ohio (barely) and Virginia (a bit better than barely).
I could be completely full of shit, of course. MfM's argument about Michigan certainly has some potential merit to it, but I think Obama ultimately gets Michigan by a bit wider a margin than Kerry. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
