At this point, 42% of registered voters say they are certain to vote for Obama, up from 36% immediately before the convention. Thirty-seven percent are now committed to McCain, up slightly from 34%. Thus, with 79% of voters committed to one candidate or the other, 21% are "swing voters" who could vote for either candidate or for a third-party candidate. <snip> To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
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To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
Once again it is the Swing Voters who will decide our next President.
That breakdown on undecideds, given today's 49-42 result, would give you 53-47 roughly. If they continue going 2-to-1 for Obama, it gives you 56-44. (I'm stealing these projections from a guy at OpenLeft, for the record, so anything incorrect in that math should be blamed on him, and I take no responsibility.)
54-46 feels like the right result right now. That'd give Obama the three obvious swing states (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado), along with likely Ohio (barely) and Virginia (a bit better than barely).
I could be completely full of shit, of course. MfM's argument about Michigan certainly has some potential merit to it, but I think Obama ultimately gets Michigan by a bit wider a margin than Kerry. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
