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1) German media was awash yesterday with the news that "Left Party overtakes SPD". The news is less sensational with the subtext that this result was shown not in a national, but a Saarland state poll - Saarland is the home base of Left Party co-chairman (and former SPD chairman booted by Schröder) Oskar Lafontaine.

Wahlumfragen - Saarland

Institut Quelle Befragte Datum   CDU SPD GRÜNE FDP Sonstige
Forsa stern 1.001
25.08.-29.08.
03.09.2008   37 % 23 % 5 % 7 % Die Linke 24 %
Sonst. 4 %

(Grüne = Greens, Sonstige = Others [those not in the current regional parliament], Die Linke = Left Party)

2) In Bavaria, the Left Party dithers permanently on the verge of the 5% limit. Erwin Huber, the leader of the Christian Socialists (CSU), the Bavarian sister of the CDU, announced a "crusade" against the Left Party entering the Bavarian regional parliament (elections on 28 September)! He used the standard centre-right tactic I was sooo disgusted with back in the Kohl era two decades ago, equating the hard left with the far-right (the extremist parties of the Republicans, DVU and NPD). However, given the SPD's voes, in polls the CSU still looks to barely retain its absolute majority.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:03:14 PM EST
On 1); I'd love to see the SPD being forced to decide between being a junior partner in a Grand Coalition or a red-red coalition, but Red Oskar still has one year to blow his chances.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like the Linke has come out of nowhere. In the lists from 1999 and 2004 they are not even mentioned. Looks like they are gaining quite a bit of their votes from the SPD. But the CDU seems to be loosing too, compared with 1999 and 2004.

DoDo, what is your hunch for the German elections next year?

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By extrapolation of present trends, CDU/CSU+FDP government... But in all German federal elections I have followed so far, extrapolation of trends didn't work, there was always some scandal or stupidity or peformance that changed the chances of one party in a major way. So who knows - maybe Wolfgang Tiefensee will launch a chancellorship bid out of nowhere, maybe Merkel gets personally tainted in a major scandal, maybe a new Ypsilanti government in Hessen and a shock result in Bavaria will double the Left Party vote... or, on the opposite, maybe the SPD will fall apart, maybe the CDU wins supermajority, maybe Koch or Wulff attempt a successful coup against Merkel...

So it's somewhat like guessing the oil price.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 02:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a dynamic environment statistical trend extrapolation doesn't cut it.  Asymmetrical information: scandals, stupidities, & etc, come from nowhere to radically alter the situation.

A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go, Oskar!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 5th, 2008 at 05:50:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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