I suppose there are reasons why they're called the base, and Palin's speech revealed exactly what those reasons are.
Viewing figures are interesting at around 21 million, but I wonder how many of those were democrats tuning in for the freak show.
Have to be careful of the ones on there who don't seem hysterical, because there's also an overly-calm group at dKos. The first reaction sounded like they were worried, and the second followed the "pumped the base, lost the indies" line. My experience is that the first reaction is usually right, but we'll see. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
I'm wondering what affect Palin will have on the 'Good Government' voters in NE Virginia. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
I don't know if I buy those CNN/TIME polls, honestly. If Obama wins by 12 and 15 in NM and IA respectively, he's going to win by 10-12 in CO and 7-9 in NV. Ohio would be a wider margin than it is, too, and Virginia would probably go blue.
At that point, there's obviously nothing to talk about, hence my being skeptical. But, then again, if he's up 6 nationally, then maybe those make sense. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
To a wingnut in Wisconsin an immigrant is a Them. Here they're talking about Uncle Jose.
I can see Iowa as well. My experience is 10 years old but there are lots of people in Iowa who really care about Good Government, run by competent people. Grassley is the Poster Child for this group and the GOP needs them to win.
Basically, the GOP can't win either state with the base and they can't win without 'em, either. The more they push their (damaged) brand the less appeal to the broader swath of voters. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
Kerry didn't bother to work the state - we got 1, ONE! piece of mail from him - and still only lost by ~5,500 votes. If he'd bother to campaign he could have won it. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
I think Obama will win NM comfortably. I'm less sure of Colorado (which would seal the election), although I'm inclined to think he gets it.
What his speech may have done is put the Kerry states in the Rust Belt out of reach for McCain. Note the RNC is now pouring resources into the Deep South. They've now admitted North Carolina is in play. Sounds like Obama may be beating them back to the SC/NC border for now. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
The bucks they put into the Deep South - which should be safe for them - the less they have for Florida and Ohio.
Thinking about it ...
Wouldn't that be a hoot if NORTH CAROLINA is the state that puts Obama over the top?
(This election is so strange.) A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
:-) A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
Won't know what to think until I see another poll there.
Ain't that the truth.
For me this is the worst time in a campaign. We've got the previous numbers, lots of stuff be happening, and we don't have much information about the effects.
So I obsess over minutia. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
They hate you and are trying to get you fired, destroy your relationship, and drive you out into the streets.
Soon, my young friend, you will be wandering Pennsylvania Avenue with a cardboard sign reading:
THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END?
Yes 4% No 12% Undecided 84%
:-D A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
Say that holds (unlikely) with the last 9%. The result:
Obama 56 McCain 44
Compare with Abramowitz's model:
Obama 57 McCain 43
Like I said, not expecting it, but I found it interesting. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
and the collapse of the GOP into a fringe, nutburger political party for the next decade.
That's is the kind of thing that happens during re-alignment elections. So it's not impossible. Interesting, even hopeful, but ... yeah, "don't expect it." A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
If NoVa goes Obama then Richmond is the key. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
There's also the area down by Norfolk which has a lot of people - lots of blacks, lots of military, lots of industry (big, big naval base and shipbuilding area) I have no idea how they vote.
This thing may be over more quickly than we think. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
One problem he has solved is enthusiasm. Palin has done that. At the same time she cemented her image as Caribou Barbie, gun-totin' Attack Witch of the North. That's NOT an image that resonates outside of their base. They can't walk that back. They can't do much to change it. They can only nuance it, a bit, while hoping the Obama campaign -- so far the best presidential campaign I've ever seen -- massively screws up their response.
So they got the base, now what?
McCain can't win with just the base so they have to figure-out a strategy to win back some of the Middle. Tonight McCain, a lousy speaker, has to feed the enthusiasm of the while winning over Undecideds. This is unopposed camera-time they've got. They can put anything out without fear of immediate contradiction. But what to do with it?
Tune in to find out.
It's apparent Rove is now in charge of the message. We can be pretty sure the speech is going to be long on attack politics, short on policy politics. Rove neither knows, nor understands, policy. OK that's more red meat for the base. Does it do anything for the Undecideds or convince Democrats? Not if the Palin response carries across. Which it should. Rove is pushing his standard line which everyone has long ago made-up their minds about. And its been rejected, by and large.
They may be smart enough to bring McCain to the Middle but even there he has to be 'Right' enough to keep the base from thinking he's selling them out and appeal to the Middle. I don't think it can be done. We'll see. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
At this point, 42% of registered voters say they are certain to vote for Obama, up from 36% immediately before the convention. Thirty-seven percent are now committed to McCain, up slightly from 34%. Thus, with 79% of voters committed to one candidate or the other, 21% are "swing voters" who could vote for either candidate or for a third-party candidate. <snip> To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
<snip>
To some degree, it appears as if swing voters are uncommitted this year because they still have doubts about Obama's and McCain's ability to handle issues that are not their known areas of strength, namely, the economy for McCain and foreign affairs (especially terrorism) for Obama. Thus, both candidates stand to gain support if they can address voters' concerns in these areas between now and Election Day.
Once again it is the Swing Voters who will decide our next President. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
That breakdown on undecideds, given today's 49-42 result, would give you 53-47 roughly. If they continue going 2-to-1 for Obama, it gives you 56-44. (I'm stealing these projections from a guy at OpenLeft, for the record, so anything incorrect in that math should be blamed on him, and I take no responsibility.)
54-46 feels like the right result right now. That'd give Obama the three obvious swing states (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado), along with likely Ohio (barely) and Virginia (a bit better than barely).
I could be completely full of shit, of course. MfM's argument about Michigan certainly has some potential merit to it, but I think Obama ultimately gets Michigan by a bit wider a margin than Kerry. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
