Have to be careful of the ones on there who don't seem hysterical, because there's also an overly-calm group at dKos. The first reaction sounded like they were worried, and the second followed the "pumped the base, lost the indies" line. My experience is that the first reaction is usually right, but we'll see. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I'm wondering what affect Palin will have on the 'Good Government' voters in NE Virginia.
I don't know if I buy those CNN/TIME polls, honestly. If Obama wins by 12 and 15 in NM and IA respectively, he's going to win by 10-12 in CO and 7-9 in NV. Ohio would be a wider margin than it is, too, and Virginia would probably go blue.
At that point, there's obviously nothing to talk about, hence my being skeptical. But, then again, if he's up 6 nationally, then maybe those make sense. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
To a wingnut in Wisconsin an immigrant is a Them. Here they're talking about Uncle Jose.
I can see Iowa as well. My experience is 10 years old but there are lots of people in Iowa who really care about Good Government, run by competent people. Grassley is the Poster Child for this group and the GOP needs them to win.
Basically, the GOP can't win either state with the base and they can't win without 'em, either. The more they push their (damaged) brand the less appeal to the broader swath of voters.
Kerry didn't bother to work the state - we got 1, ONE! piece of mail from him - and still only lost by ~5,500 votes. If he'd bother to campaign he could have won it.
I think Obama will win NM comfortably. I'm less sure of Colorado (which would seal the election), although I'm inclined to think he gets it.
What his speech may have done is put the Kerry states in the Rust Belt out of reach for McCain. Note the RNC is now pouring resources into the Deep South. They've now admitted North Carolina is in play. Sounds like Obama may be beating them back to the SC/NC border for now. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
The bucks they put into the Deep South - which should be safe for them - the less they have for Florida and Ohio.
Thinking about it ...
Wouldn't that be a hoot if NORTH CAROLINA is the state that puts Obama over the top?
(This election is so strange.)
:-)
Won't know what to think until I see another poll there.
Ain't that the truth.
For me this is the worst time in a campaign. We've got the previous numbers, lots of stuff be happening, and we don't have much information about the effects.
So I obsess over minutia.
They hate you and are trying to get you fired, destroy your relationship, and drive you out into the streets.
Soon, my young friend, you will be wandering Pennsylvania Avenue with a cardboard sign reading:
THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END?
Yes 4% No 12% Undecided 84%
:-D
Say that holds (unlikely) with the last 9%. The result:
Obama 56 McCain 44
Compare with Abramowitz's model:
Obama 57 McCain 43
Like I said, not expecting it, but I found it interesting. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
and the collapse of the GOP into a fringe, nutburger political party for the next decade.
That's is the kind of thing that happens during re-alignment elections. So it's not impossible. Interesting, even hopeful, but ... yeah, "don't expect it."
If NoVa goes Obama then Richmond is the key.
There's also the area down by Norfolk which has a lot of people - lots of blacks, lots of military, lots of industry (big, big naval base and shipbuilding area) I have no idea how they vote.
