By extrapolation of present trends, CDU/CSU+FDP government... But in all German federal elections I have followed so far, extrapolation of trends didn't work, there was always some scandal or stupidity or peformance that changed the chances of one party in a major way. So who knows - maybe Wolfgang Tiefensee will launch a chancellorship bid out of nowhere, maybe Merkel gets personally tainted in a major scandal, maybe a new Ypsilanti government in Hessen and a shock result in Bavaria will double the Left Party vote... or, on the opposite, maybe the SPD will fall apart, maybe the CDU wins supermajority, maybe Koch or Wulff attempt a successful coup against Merkel...

So it's somewhat like guessing the oil price.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}