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Won't know what to think until I see another poll there.

Ain't that the truth.

For me this is the worst time in a campaign.  We've got the previous numbers, lots of stuff be happening, and we don't have much information about the effects.

So I obsess over minutia.

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to know where the fuck SurveyUSA is.  They haven't been polling much since the primaries.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's personal.

They hate you and are trying to get you fired, destroy your relationship, and drive you out into the streets.

Soon, my young friend, you will be wandering Pennsylvania Avenue with a cardboard sign reading:

THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END?

Yes 4%
No 12%
Undecided 84%

:-D

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting tidbit for ya: Gallup says there are only 9 points worth of undecideds left.  Undecideds have been breaking 2-to-1 for Obama.

Say that holds (unlikely) with the last 9%.  The result:

Obama 56
McCain 44

Compare with Abramowitz's model:

Obama 57
McCain 43

Like I said, not expecting it, but I found it interesting.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A 13/14 point win intimates 400+ EVs, a gain of 20 to 30 House Seats and 10+ Senate seats ...

and the collapse of the GOP into a fringe, nutburger political party for the next decade.

That's is the kind of thing that happens during re-alignment elections.  So it's not impossible.  Interesting, even hopeful, but ... yeah, "don't expect it."

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:38:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily. Think Reagan in 1984 - twenty point win, +2 in the Senate +16 in the House for the Republicans. Ok, but no landslide.
by MarekNYC on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:47:07 PM EST
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Oh, I agree.  That's why "intimates."  
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 03:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And any kind of terrorist attack that Bush/Cheney et al allow to occur in th US does WHAT to the dynamic?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a clue.
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There you have it.  Regardless of everything, ball is in the Repubs court to do as they will.  Fun.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Sep 4th, 2008 at 04:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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