Like the quote says, I bet both sides of over/under, leaving the middle to the experts. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
The low price is really hurting Iran and Russia. The Saudis have more money than they know what to do with, so while they may make unhappy noises in public, it's not impossible they don't much care in private.
The US and Europe benefit the most, and in the medium term it takes pressure off any move away from an oil powered economy.
Politically it's a win for a the US and Europe and a very bad thing for Iran and Russia. Another year or so of this and Iran may be in danger of regime change. (Imagine that...) Russia will be finding it hard to finance any new military spending.
Considering that the oil companies were among the most profitable businesses of the previous few years, they certainly have some room to move around in if there happened to be an interest in strategic rather than tactical goals.
Has there ever been quite such a spectacular bubble followed by quite such a spectacular slump in trading history? (Except for silly non-commodities like tulips.)
In terms of price ... its only a swing from the $140/barrel range to the $40/barrel, after all. When the Great Depression hit, commodities fell by far more than 70% ... I believe crude oil fell by 90% or more, and there were farm products in the field that were not harvested because the return on the crop would not pay for the expenses of the harvest. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
