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China would do well to soften its technology transfer standards.  My only experience is with wind technology, where with thousands of megawatts installed the past two years (5K? and nearly equal this year?), the performance of the turbines is horrible.  Both sides of a good deal need to be successful, you can't just steal technology and then expect help when it breaks.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 04:43:42 PM EST
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You say that, but the experience of developing countries is that if you don't steal technology you get to stay grubbingly poor and completely unable to create an infrastructure for yourself because the furriners end up owning everything.

The typical Western company's notion of a good deal in the 3rd world is "Heads we win, Tails you lose."

As such, stealing things you don't understand and working them out through painful trial and error sucks, but the alternatives suck more.

If wind power was just a matter of making deals with Crazy Horse, then I'd advise China to change their ways, but if you're dealing people like Tulsi Tanti then you need to keep your own long term interests very much in mind, because they certainly will sell you down the river whenever possible.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 04:52:38 PM EST
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Point well taken, even understood.  But mirroring the arguments of the Alstom chief, Chinese wind turbine manufacturers are already undercutting the global market.  It's not wrong for developing countries to take the technology, as the alternatives for them are worse, but if Chinese wind turbines are any indication, they should wait before they expect international sales.

Get it right first, then go all out.

With high-speed trains it's a bit different, as wind turbines don't carry passengers.

PS.  I was grilled Friday by a major hedge fund (or as they say, Capital Market) on Tulsi Tanti's empire.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 05:41:03 PM EST
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Ummm...everything I've heard says (in all but the short term, maybe) buy Enercon and sell Suzlon...if either were possible....but then I'm on the outside looking in.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 06:47:58 PM EST
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Don't know who you're hearing from, but you are correct that Suzlon has significant hurdles to overcome.  The trouble is (one trouble is), you can't buy Enercon as it's privately held.

(We can discuss this personally as I will be in Edinburgh 27-29 Jan.)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 07:44:02 PM EST
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Looks like I'll be back from Tehran the evening of the 27th.

You'd be welcome to stay at the Grange. When are you getting in and out?

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 07:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's take it to email.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 08:41:55 PM EST
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Well I would, but I must have mislaid yours....

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 10:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Crazy Horse:
Get it right first, then go all out.

Well, I agree... but then I'm not a "financial engineer"... ;-)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 07:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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