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As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

(...)

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 07:20:18 PM EST
I was stunned by that, and meant to post it, so thanks J.  Enjoy poemless.

he's probably forgetting that even though the hole amurka has dug itself is so deep, the indefatigable amurkan spirit is not a myth, and who knows what's coming?

I was stunned tonight when the proprietor of the first Kino i visited in Bremen (Woody Allen's Vicky Christina Barcelona) regaled me with how Obama is going to pull it off.  Basing it on hidden amurkan ingenuity.

i tried to tell him the hole was too deep, but he got me flooded with hope and change, which i succumb to often.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 07:48:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Crazy Horse:
Woody Allen's Vicky Christina Barcelona

One of the most disappointing movies I've seen last year. I would have thought any movie with those actresses should have been awesome, but the only character that was not completely flat was Bardem's. The others figured as puppets in Allen's over-narrated and unnecessary story.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 04:05:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was also disappointed, but decided to wait to see it in Englisch before final judgement.  It did however, make me want to go to Barcelona.

What spoiled it for me was that there were no character or sexuality insights.  Flat, that's probably the right word.

scarlett was not believable, going from a digital camera to a full darkroom in a week or two, while pouting her lips in several different directions at the same time.

i did ask the two girls next to me if they wanted to take my helicopter to Oviedo now, and they declined.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 04:51:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm really looking forward to the Francoise Sagan film tonight, though i'd rather see it in french with english subtitles than with German overdubs.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 04:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please note that Alaska returns to Russia.

Can anyone now doubt that Gov Palin knows what she's talking about on foreign policy?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 03:41:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So much fail in one little picture. All he's showing there is his cluelessness about the tribes of the US. I don't know much, but I know that's wrong.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 06:26:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I understand it, the basic idea has been around for a while and is probably not Panarin's to begin with. It originates from within North America.

The Middlebury Institute
for the study of separatism, secession, and self-determination. A website where you learn, among other things, that the Third North American Secessionist Convention was held in New Hampshire in 2008.

And to put things in context:

NY Times: A Vision of a Nation No Longer in the U.S.

Back in 1981, the journalist Joel Garreau published "The Nine Nations of North America," mapping out how economics, geography and culture really made it more logical for the United States, Canada and Mexico to be nine nations than three.



You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 08:00:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then, there's always the sustainability-based secessionist novel from Ernest Callenbach, ECOTOPIA.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 08:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Context? Context? Come on, you can't deny the folks at the WSJ a little bit of doom porn, plus stirring the anti-Russian sentiment (what's not to like?).

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 10:07:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bar them from a legal pleasure? Perish the thought! Tell me though, for my peace of mind, are you sure the WSJ finest are regular readers of this forum?

You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 11:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably not, although some ETribbers are known to read the WSJ sometimes.

So I guess the WSJ regulars can safely rest in the reassurance that this notion of the US undoing is a foreign threat from evil Russia; no domestic terrorism here, no siree...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 12:31:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Good Professor is imbibing the funny weed.

New Mexico shares nothing with the old Confederacy.  We're different from them in regards to languages, culture, economics, history, politics ... you name it.

We have little ties to the mess that is Mexico outside of Mexicans-as-family -- a different thing.  Nationals are buying homes and land here to protect their families from kidnapping, crime, police corruption, & etc.  

The more likely alignment of New Mexico in the event of a break-up is based on the watersheds of the southern Rockies: Colorado, Rio Grande, Pecos Rivers.  This includes the states of New Mexico, Arizona, Southern Colorado, Southern Utah, and the Southeast parts of Nevada.  This area, in turn, will look to California and to the Mid-West for food/trade.  

by ATinNM on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 11:48:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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