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I predict that the "savings" of the Chinese will disappear just as did that of the citizens of the USSR after the collapse of the empire.

Savings of "money" only means something when the money can be used to buy things. Savings means deferred spending and in the USSR and China there was/is nothing to spend it on.

In both places the currency rates were artificial. In the USSR there was essentially no trade outside of the block, so the false value of the ruble could be maintained.

In modern China the currency is being manipulated to keep exports growing, but the strains are starting to show. About a year ago I predicted that there would be an economic collapse in China and an associated rise in civil unrest.

This is now happening and how it will be dealt with is anybody's guess. Until recently a huge government crackdown would have been the natural response, but the rise of the wealthy class may prevent this. The wealthy need markets both domestic and foreign and putting the country through another "Great Leap Forward" or other such massive social engineering would ruin the emerging capitalist class.

Whatever happens next, it won't be pretty.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 11:53:18 AM EST
Savings of "money" only means something when the money can be used to buy things. Savings means deferred spending and in the USSR and China there was/is nothing to spend it on.

Did you mean to say that the Chinese cannot spend their money because there is nothing to buy, or am I misreading this?

by dahuk (dahuk . hiddenborder @ com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 01:33:16 PM EST
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