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ECONOMY & FINANCE
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:28:46 PM EST
Merkel to Host Top-level Meeting on Financial Crisis | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 05.02.2009
Chancellor Merkel will meet the heads of the world's five leading financial organization in Berlin. It is part of Germany's effort to drum up support for a new global regulatory system for financial markets. 

Merkel is expected to build on long-running calls to inject transparency in global markets to avert a repeat of the wrenching economic crisis currently engulfing the world as she meets the chiefs of the world's top financial institutions at a meeting in Berlin.

The chancellor will host Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organization, World Bank president Robert Zoellick and International Monetary Fund managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Also expected to attend are Angel Gurria, secretary general of the International Labour Organization and Juan Somavia, director general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Merkel's discussions in Berlin form part of the buildup to a summit of Group of 20 leading industrialized nations and emerging economies set to take place in London on April 2.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:30:08 PM EST
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Global Call to Fight Financial Crisis at German Summit | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 05.02.2009
Germany and five major international financial and economic organizations pledged Thursday to undertake "determined and coordinated action" to fight the global economic downturn. 

"This is a global crisis and it needs global solutions," said a statement issued after talks between Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), International Labour Organization (ILO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The meeting painted a gloomy picture of the world economy and urged countries to "resist protectionist tendencies" and "work towards tangible further opening of world trade."

Participants also called for an overarching framework supported by states and international organisations that prevents excesses in the markets and works to counter future crises.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:39:38 PM EST
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Fran:
Participants also called for an overarching framework supported by states and international organisations that prevents excesses in the markets and works to counter future crises.

My rates are very reasonable....

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 04:25:09 PM EST
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Angel Gurria, secretary general of the International Labour Organization and Juan Somavia, director general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Well, it's the other way around: Angel Gurria is secretary general of the OECD, and Juan Somavia is the director general of the ILO...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 08:16:49 PM EST
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Deutsche Bank Posts Historic Annual Loss | Business | Deutsche Welle | 05.02.2009
Germany's Deutsche Bank has posted an historic annual loss, including a record loss in the fourth quarter of 2008. CEO Josef Ackermann attributes the setback to "weaknesses" in the institution's business model.  

Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, said it suffered a net loss of 3.9 billion euros ($5 billion) in 2008, confirming reports from mid-January. But despite the loss, the bank said it would pay out a dividend of 50 euro cents per share.

 

A net loss of 4.8 billion euros was accrued in the fourth quarter alone, compared with a net profit of 1 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2007.

 

"Operating conditions in the quarter were completely unprecedented, and exposed some weaknesses in our business model," Ackermann said in a statement.

 

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:30:49 PM EST
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Opinion: What Obama Could Learn from Germany - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The United States is experiencing its worst crisis in decades. Obama is trying to fight it by preparing one gigantic economic stimulus program after the other. But the hangover is inevitable, and if the desired economic miracle doesn't materialize, it will be a massive one.

The most attractive thing about globalization is that it has enabled us to develop international tastes in our shopping. Our wine comes from France, our flat-screen televisions from Korea and our elegant shoes from Italy.

But you can also find good ideas for governing by shopping for them around the world. The catalogue of ideas is packed. Indeed, many countries have answers to the question on everyone's mind these days: "How do I rescue my economy?"

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:32:49 PM EST
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Consider this.

Obama gets elected, and instead of having all of these leftover hacks from the Clinton years in his Cabinet, he has people like Krugman, Amy Goodman, Keith Olbermann, Noam Chomsky, Evo Morales, etc.

Result: PEOPLE WOULD GO NUTSO!  We are DOOOOOOMED!

So let the current crowd/solution FAIL MISERABLY and then what?

Question: Is ET "well positioned" to become a source of new ideas  ... I don't know ... like FT or WSJ is constantly quoted?

We all know that the current Obama plan is NOT going to work, right?  Then what?  Go back to the Republicans?   HAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAH!

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 09:37:18 AM EST
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We all know that the current Obama plan is NOT going to work, right?  Then what?  Go back to the Republicans?

why not ? In the UK we're gonna get a conservative govt when Brown is voted out and that's gonna be so much worse than Brown.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 11:30:54 AM EST
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the hangover is inevitable, and if the desired economic miracle doesn't materialize, it will be a massive one
NYTimes.com: Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important) Paul Krugman Blog (January 6, 2009)
And that gets us to politics. This really does look like a plan that falls well short of what advocates of strong stimulus were hoping for -- and it seems as if that was done in order to win Republican votes. Yet even if the plan gets the hoped-for 80 votes in the Senate, which seems doubtful, responsibility for the plan's perceived failure, if it's spun that way, will be placed on Democrats.

I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, perhaps even weaker than what we're talking about now, is crafted to win those extra GOP votes. The plan limits the rise in unemployment, but things are still pretty bad, with the rate peaking at something like 9 percent and coming down only slowly. And then Mitch McConnell says "See, government spending doesn't work."

Let's hope I've got this wrong.



Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 09:41:37 AM EST
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Washington Post: Bailout Overseer: Treasury Overpaid By Nearly $80 Billion

Harvard econ Prof. Elizabeth Warren, testifying before a Senate Banking committee hearing underway now to judge the performance of the $700 billion bailout, said that the Treasury overpaid by $78 billion in its first round of investments into troubled banks.

Warren said that Treasury spent $254 billion to purchase assets whose actual value was only $176 billion, "a shortfall of about $78 billion," she said.

Warren said Treasury failed to "price for risk," and used a metaphor to explain: It's as if Treasury was looking at 10 paintings and promised to pay $1 million for each, even though "one is a Picasso, one is a Rembrandt" and the other eight are not.

"There may be good policy reasons for overpaying," Warren said, "but without clearly delineated reasons, we can't know that."

by Magnifico on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:36:10 PM EST
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On MSNBC'a Rachael Maddow Show Thursday Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Professor of Finance(?) and Chairman of the Oversight Committee mandated by Congress, said that Henry Paulson had been asked about the value of the warrants being received by Treasury in return for the cash injections and the responded very clearly that it was a "par" transaction, i.e. 100% plus or minus.  In fact, an independent audit indicates that they received warrants worth about 60% of the money provided.  One doubts that Paulson would have made such an "error" as CEO of Goldman.

We are doomed until and unless the Obama Treasury at least insists on not being lied to by the banks it is rescuing.  I am not holding my breath.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 12:51:58 AM EST
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Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Professor of Finance(?)

Bankruptcy law. One of those basic establishment liberals who got seriously pissed off and moved  a little to the left and became a lot more vocal early in the Bush admin. Early contributor to TPM, and founder of the blog Credit Slips. Her main issues have been the growing burdens on the middle class, and the growing class divide, plus lots of attacks on the banks. The main academic point person in the (failed) attempt to fight bankruptcy 'reform'. Disclosure: I knew her daughter and coauthor fairly well for a while.

by MarekNYC on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 06:32:39 PM EST
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Bernard Madoff client list released | Business | guardian.co.uk

A list of the many thousands of people who invested with Bernard Madoff has been released, including several prominent British society figures and a number of well-known Americans from the world of politics, sport and Hollywood.

The 162-page roll call of potential victims of Madoff's alleged $50bn (£34.3bn) fraud was published late last night. Among the 13,567 individuals, trusts and private bank accounts is the name John G Malkovich, although there is no confirmation that this is indeed the famous actor.

The highest-profile British name is Lady Victoria de Rothschild. De Rothschild, formerly married to Sir Evelyn, was herself embroiled last year in a Tory donor row. Also on the list of high-society financiers, actors and sports stars is Lady Evelyn Jacobs, wife of the Liberal Democrat-supporting life peer who had an estimated fortune of £128m last year.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:36:44 PM EST
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EU wind sector blown off course by crisis - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - European wind energy projects are finding it hard to get finance as the economic crisis begins to pinch, with smaller manufacturers announcing hundreds of lay-offs despite the robust performance of the sector heading into the downturn.

"There was such high demand six months ago, you had to stand in line to purchase windmill parts, but now the order books seem to have lightened somewhat," a senior EU financing official told EUobserver.

Some smaller wind projects are having trouble finding financing

Two days ago, Siemens Wind Power laid off some 400 production workers in Denmark, following similar recent cutbacks at LM Glasfiber - also based in Denmark - and the largest producer of wind turbines in the world.

Experts, such as Christian Kjaer of the head of the European Wind Energy Association say actual orders for turbines in Europe have not dried up. But expectations of explosive growth in the sector are being re-adjusted.

"The lay-offs are not because of a drop in demand - yet," the EU official explained. "Hiring had been based on the expectation that such growth would continue, and now there are doubts that it will."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 03:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do Jerome and CH ring in on this one?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 09:40:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barack Obama - The Action Americans Need - washingtonpost.com

By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression. Millions of jobs that Americans relied on just a year ago are gone; millions more of the nest eggs families worked so hard to build have vanished. People everywhere are worried about what tomorrow will bring.

What Americans expect from Washington is action that matches the urgency they feel in their daily lives -- action that's swift, bold and wise enough for us to climb out of this crisis.

Because each day we wait to begin the work of turning our economy around, more people lose their jobs, their savings and their homes. And if nothing is done, this recession might linger for years. Our economy will lose 5 million more jobs. Unemployment will approach double digits. Our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 04:21:30 PM EST
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Trust And Interest Rates on Treasuries - Moon of Alabama

Obama has an op-ed in the Washington Post promoting his 'stimulus' package. Boilerplate bipartisan stuff David Broder could have written.

The package is getting bigger by the day, but the effective part of - timely, temporary and targeted measures - is shrinking.

The economic team Obama assembled is certainly proving that it is as bad as many have feared. 'Bad bank' plans and buying up 'troubled assets' are simply the wrong measures.

Temporarily nationalize the banks under some bankruptcy rule. Write down their 'assets' to some realistic value, make the shareholders and debt-holders take the necessary big haircuts and in two a three years privatize those banks again.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 5th, 2009 at 04:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The proper solution would be to have Bair and FDIC take over, settle out all assets and cut loose what is viable into a new bank with new management.  Do this, as NBBooks proposed for the six biggest TARP recipients, starting with Citi and B of A.  They may claim to be "too big to fail" but in fact they are "too big to be left to flail about."

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 01:01:47 AM EST
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FT.com / US / Politics & Foreign policy - US explores converting stakes in banks
US officials are examining ways gradually to convert government stakes in banks into ordinary shares as banks accumulate losses, according to people close to the discussions.

The point would be to provide a drip-feed of additional common equity as needed to cover losses - without the government owning a larger stake in the banks than is necessary.

One idea that has been considered by policymakers is for the government to change its existing holdings in the banks, which have taken the form of preferred shares - non-voting stock that carries a fixed dividend - into convertible preferred shares that could be converted into common stock.

Under this proposal, the shares would automatically convert into common equity if there were a decline in a bank's health - as measured by its so-called tangible equity ratio, for example. The government may also make future capital injections in the form of such convertible preferred shares.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 04:52:21 AM EST
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FT.com / Global Economy - `Infrastructure more helpful than tax cuts'
Infrastructure investment will have far more impact than tax cuts for governments trying to boost economic growth in the face of the global recession, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF, which has urged faster and bigger restructuring plans for the financial system, also broke a taboo by calling for limited and temporary nationalisation of troubled financial institutions when shareholder equity had been wiped out by collapsed asset prices.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 04:56:32 AM EST
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Melanchthon:
Infrastructure investment will have far more impact than tax cuts for governments trying to boost economic growth in the face of the global recession, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Too bad our own president hasn't got the memo, judging from his TV performance last night. Maybe DSK can translate into French for him?

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 10:09:33 AM EST
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Mmm. As per redstar's diary, the IMF hasn't gotten its own memo:
The IMF meanwhile will deliver €1.7 billion, with another €1.8 billion coming from Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Sweden and non-EU nation Norway...

The monies...will buttress the Latvian economy up to the first quarter of 2011...

As part of the loan agreement, public sector wages are to be slashed by 15 percent in 2009 alongside deep cuts to government expenditures of 1 billion Latvian lats (€1.41 billion) alongside cuts to income tax and increases in VAT rates...

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 10:47:45 AM EST
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Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
U.S. taxpayers are being shortchanged by about $78 billion through the Treasury Department's bank bailout, the panel overseeing the program said.

The Treasury, when it was headed by Secretary Henry Paulson, received bank assets worth about $176 billion in exchange for capital purchases of $254 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Congressional Oversight Panel said in a report today.

"The loss estimate is conservative," said Representative Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. "It could turn out that those assets in the end are worthless. These are massive handouts to favored institutions to try to make up with taxpayer money the mistakes they made with investor money."



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 05:16:24 AM EST
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598,000 Jobs Lost in January; Rate Hits 7.6% - NYTimes.com
The country moved into its second year of uninterrupted job losses last month, with companies shedding another 598,000 jobs and the unemployment rate moving up to 7.6 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday.
...
For the last several months, analysts said, the United States has increasingly been trapped in a vicious circle of slumping consumer demand, falling business investment, mounting losses in the banking system, and rising unemployment, which was 7.2 percent in December.
...
On Thursday, the nation's retailers reported that sales fell 1.6 percent in January, the fourth consecutive month of steep sales declines.
...
For comparison, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in January 2008. But some analysts contend that the current unemployment rate understates the labor market's problems because the percentage of adults participating in the labor force has slumped in recent years, and those people are not listed as "unemployed."

Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, estimated that if the labor force participation rate today was as high as it was when President Bush took office, the unemployment rate would be 9.4 percent.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 08:59:39 AM EST
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598,000 Jobs Lost in January; Rate Hits 7.6% - NYTimes.com
The Federal Reserve continues to pump money into the financial system at a furious pace. Since September, the central bank has more than doubled its reserves, from $900 billion to more than $2 trillion, by literally creating new money.

The Fed has used some of that money to help bail out financial institutions, from Citigroup and Bank of America to the American International Group.

But analysts say that the big problem is not a shortage of money, but a shortage of demand for products by businesses and consumers. As a result, banks are overloaded with excess reserves, made available by the Fed, which they are often simply parking at the Fed.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Feb 6th, 2009 at 09:02:21 AM EST
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