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As long as the gas cuts targetted only Ukraine, it was reasonably easy to blame Ukraine for siphoning gas, but this blanket interruption shifts the responsibility clearly towards the Kremlin.

WHat do you mean by "blanket interruption"? Only gas flows via Ukraine are affected.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:06:22 PM EST
gas flows through Ukraine still amount to 80% of Russian exports. There's Blue Stream to Turkey, and Yamal via Poland to Germany. Everything else goes through Ukraine.

But by cutting more than the volumes 'bought' by Ukraine, Russia unambiguously targets European deliveries rather than those at stake in the official conflict with Ukraine.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by cutting more than the volumes 'bought' by Ukraine, Russia unambiguously targets European deliveries rather than those at stake in the official conflict with Ukraine.

That's what I thought, thanks.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 04:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But weren't they protesting that Ukraine was "stealing" a lot more than the volumes they 'bought'?

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
by poemless on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 05:00:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right!How you expect Russians (state or private) to continue with gas supply through Ukraine while Ukraine is STEALING gas???On the contrary EUROPE should discipline Ukraine (if they want gas) cause Europe has real influence on Ukraine (money wise)...Sorry Jerome but this is logic here (for me) and I do not see why Russians are to be blamed...
by vbo on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 08:44:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine can get away with it (the hold Russia's exports hostage).

It would definitely be to Russia's advantage to sell gas at the Ukrainian border and let the Europeans deal with the transit. The problem is that the current situation is not driven by Russia's interests, but by those of a select few Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs who benefit from that situation - capturing a lot of money, mostly from Gazprom, but also from Ukrainian central authorities.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 04:17:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I see how this is not in Russia's interest but I can't see how "select few Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs" can benefit from this situation "capturing a lot of money, mostly from Gazprom, but also from Ukrainian central authorities. " ??? If there is no gas supply how they (anyone) can benefit? I am just a dummy in this field so please explain...
 Also I have no idea what the deal Russia has with Ukraine about pipeline and transit so I do not understand how Russians can "sell gas at the Ukrainian border and let the Europeans deal with the transit".It makes sense if it's possible but on the other hand it also makes possible for Ukraine to get gas again even if they do not intend to pay for gas previously used (and this would not be just).
by vbo on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 09:15:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If there is no gas supply how they (anyone) can benefit?

They can make money all year round on supplies to the privatised, cash-paid part of the Ukraine market. The wars are about sharing the spoils: who gets how much?

As to "letting the Europeans deal with it", that would mean EU monitors checking that no gas gets "lost" during transit.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 9th, 2009 at 03:05:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gee, if you don't pay your gas bill, like Kiev hasn't, you get cut off.
We can suspect that this is the latest trick of the Atlanticist cabal, their beloved NATO attempting to hang for relevance, by picking yet another fight with "the former Soviet Union."

They do this during a time when the Czech Presidency is attempting to keep crazy Grandpa Klaus under control...

by euamerican on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:13:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We can suspect that this is the latest trick of the Atlanticist cabal, their beloved NATO attempting to hang for relevance, by picking yet another fight with "the former Soviet Union."
---------
Yes.
by vbo on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 09:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say "you wouldn't believe this!" but you would.

I watched a whole Deutsche Welle Journal piece on freezing Bulgarians in which the journalists did not once mention the word "Ukraine."  The whole thing was a story about how Russia was abusing the Bulgarian people, basically.

And you know, it made me think.  If Saudia Arabia decided to stop giving us oil altogether, I think most Americans would not think "Whaa! Why doesn't SA care about us?  They are oppressing us!  Call the UN!"  We'd blame ourselves for being idiot enough to rely on them.  We already do.

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.

by poemless on Sat Jan 10th, 2009 at 02:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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