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Ukraine can get away with it (the hold Russia's exports hostage).

It would definitely be to Russia's advantage to sell gas at the Ukrainian border and let the Europeans deal with the transit. The problem is that the current situation is not driven by Russia's interests, but by those of a select few Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs who benefit from that situation - capturing a lot of money, mostly from Gazprom, but also from Ukrainian central authorities.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 04:17:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I see how this is not in Russia's interest but I can't see how "select few Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs" can benefit from this situation "capturing a lot of money, mostly from Gazprom, but also from Ukrainian central authorities. " ??? If there is no gas supply how they (anyone) can benefit? I am just a dummy in this field so please explain...
 Also I have no idea what the deal Russia has with Ukraine about pipeline and transit so I do not understand how Russians can "sell gas at the Ukrainian border and let the Europeans deal with the transit".It makes sense if it's possible but on the other hand it also makes possible for Ukraine to get gas again even if they do not intend to pay for gas previously used (and this would not be just).
by vbo on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 09:15:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If there is no gas supply how they (anyone) can benefit?

They can make money all year round on supplies to the privatised, cash-paid part of the Ukraine market. The wars are about sharing the spoils: who gets how much?

As to "letting the Europeans deal with it", that would mean EU monitors checking that no gas gets "lost" during transit.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 9th, 2009 at 03:05:45 AM EST
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