My take is that Putin knows that people in the major EU gas companies and governments know full well about the shady underbelly of Ukrainian gas, and he's playing some hardball here. He believes Russia can take the media hit, because the key players know it's not true unless it lasts weeks.
He wants to end 17 years of annual disputes, and end the hold of the oligarchical middle-men (persons). Since the "energy weapon" is already reality in the West media, though not true, he can afford to lose some face to slam the third parties without significant risk that Russian is newly seen as belligerent, since they are already seen that way.
But i defer completely to your take, as i have nowhere near your experience here. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
KREMLIN PUSHING NEW PIPELINE PROJECTS The disruption of gas flows to Europe has highlighted the fragility of transit routes -- playing into the Kremlin's hands as it tries to persuade Europe to back alternative pipelines. Russia has been struggling to win European approval for the Nord Stream pipeline, which will ship gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany, bypassing potential troublesome transit states. Nord Stream, a joint venture between Gazprom, Germany's BASF and E.ON and Dutch firm Gasunie, has encountered resistance, on political and environmental grounds, from several European Union states. Moscow is also pushing the South Stream pipeline, which will ship Russian gas under the Black Sea and direct to the EU. Russia is seeking to sign up more European states to the project. In that context, the gas row with Ukraine is "all opportune, from the Russian side," said a European diplomat in Moscow. "Russia might find an interest in promoting Nord Stream and it will be clear to many Europeans there should be an alternative route." Asked if the dispute would bolster the Nordstream and South Stream projects, Julian Lee of the Centre for Global Energy Studies said: "That's certainly what Gazprom is hoping for."
The disruption of gas flows to Europe has highlighted the fragility of transit routes -- playing into the Kremlin's hands as it tries to persuade Europe to back alternative pipelines.
Russia has been struggling to win European approval for the Nord Stream pipeline, which will ship gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany, bypassing potential troublesome transit states.
Nord Stream, a joint venture between Gazprom, Germany's BASF
and E.ON and Dutch firm Gasunie, has encountered resistance, on political and environmental grounds, from several European Union states.
Moscow is also pushing the South Stream pipeline, which will ship Russian gas under the Black Sea and direct to the EU. Russia is seeking to sign up more European states to the project.
In that context, the gas row with Ukraine is "all opportune, from the Russian side," said a European diplomat in Moscow.
"Russia might find an interest in promoting Nord Stream and it will be clear to many Europeans there should be an alternative route."
Asked if the dispute would bolster the Nordstream and South Stream projects, Julian Lee of the Centre for Global Energy Studies said: "That's certainly what Gazprom is hoping for."
Also mentioned as potential Rusian endgames are:
Don't have time for cites and blockquotes, but the media reporting that Putin cut off supplies to Europe seem to be false. As in the early days of the Georgia conflict.
Even Barrosso said something like "if both parties are doing what they say, then we don't have a problem here." He said that after speaking today with both Prime Ministers.
This is the playing field of some of the most powerful interests in the world game. Remember that Timoshenko made her fortune in gas. I'd give the above article some respect, though of course we don't know and can't analyze what's really happening. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
This echoes EU requests to monitor transit through Ukraine (Timoshenko said today Ukraine would accept EU transit monitors - once supplies were resumed... in other words, not while evidence of Ukrainian siphoning off could be seen).
But I still can't really see the sense of what Putin was saying. What need is there for observers to note that the pipelines are closed, if Russia says they are and Ukraine says they are? It made me wonder what Miller had told him about the (possible) inevitability of pipelines being closed in an opaque way (not "openly"), by power centres within the structure which would soon be getting out of control. Then Putin has to agree publicly or lose face. And, though the reference to observers sounds probably specious and cynical, it might almost be a wish.
But there isn't much sense in what he's doing unless his hand is being forced in some way.
Ukraine has allowed no access for independent monitors to its gas metering stations since January 1. "Tymoshenko and Jose Manuel Barroso agreed to provide immediate access to EU technical experts for permanent monitoring of natural gas supplied by Russia to meet the European Union's demand," the Ukrainian government's press service said in a statement. Gazprom accused Ukraine of stealing more than 86 million cubic meters of gas since the start of the year.
Gazprom accused Ukraine of stealing more than 86 million cubic meters of gas since the start of the year.
It seems the monitors are not just going to oversee the turning off of the gas, but to make sure Ukraine is not stealing it. Maybe.
Hell, the way this article reads, it sounds like Ukraine is turning off the gas.
MOSCOW, January 7 (RIA Novosti) - Russian energy giant Gazprom halted on Wednesday gas supplies to Ukraine for transit to Europe. A final check established that Ukraine was not carrying any gas to Europe despite Russia's move to continue gas supplies to Ukraine through the Sudzha station. Earlier in the day, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned his Czech counterpart that Gazprom would be forced to cut gas supplies to Ukraine unless Kiev cancels its decision to close all four pipelines carrying Russian gas to the EU. "Unless the Ukrainian authorities reconsider their decision soon, Gazprom will be forced to stop deliveries of gas via Ukraine, which become senseless with European consumers not receiving it anyway," Putin told Mirek Topolanek. The proposal to stop gas supplies to Ukraine was made by the head of Russian energy giant Gazprom earlier on Wednesday.
Earlier in the day, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned his Czech counterpart that Gazprom would be forced to cut gas supplies to Ukraine unless Kiev cancels its decision to close all four pipelines carrying Russian gas to the EU.
"Unless the Ukrainian authorities reconsider their decision soon, Gazprom will be forced to stop deliveries of gas via Ukraine, which become senseless with European consumers not receiving it anyway," Putin told Mirek Topolanek.
The proposal to stop gas supplies to Ukraine was made by the head of Russian energy giant Gazprom earlier on Wednesday.
Ukraine cut off gas to the EU, so Russia cuts off gas to Ukraine. Acc'd. to RIAN. Why did Ukraine cut off gas to EU? Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Ukraine PM says agrees on EU gas transit monitors | Markets | Reuters
KIEV, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine would guarantee Russian gas transit to Europe once supplies are renewed and allow European Union inspectors to monitor the flows, the government quoted Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as saying on Wednesday.
But yes, there does seem to be an agreement that monitors can go in "immediately".
There seems to be a tectonic change in Kiev - just yesterday, talks between Gazprom and Naftogas "were not scheduled" but Naftogas chairman was ready to be in Moscow on 8th. All of a sudden, there has been a midnight meeting between them in Moscow - yes, on 8th. And right now they are in Brussels, hammering things out with EU mediation.
The whole Ukrainian politics of autumn and early winter could be considered as a positioning for this very moment. Ukraine knew that it's going to refuse any increase in price, and this spat was going to happen. What mattered was - who would be at the negotiating table at the moment?
Looks like Tymoshenko won. One less player to consider, the end game could be closer.
All of a sudden, there has been a midnight meeting between them in Moscow - yes, on 8th. And right now they are in Brussels
Yes. I was about to post this, (my bold):
The Associated Press: Gazprom's CEO holds talks with Naftogaz's Dubina
MOSCOW (AP) -- The heads of the Russian and Ukrainian gas companies have held an unexpected meeting in Moscow to discuss the dispute that has caused an energy crisis in Europe.Both companies confirmed they met early Thursday but released no details. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Gazprom's Alexei Miller and Naftogaz's Oleh Dubina since talks over prices broke down New Year's Eve.The meeting was unexpected because both men are due in Brussels Thursday to meet with EU officials.
MOSCOW (AP) -- The heads of the Russian and Ukrainian gas companies have held an unexpected meeting in Moscow to discuss the dispute that has caused an energy crisis in Europe.
Both companies confirmed they met early Thursday but released no details. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Gazprom's Alexei Miller and Naftogaz's Oleh Dubina since talks over prices broke down New Year's Eve.
The meeting was unexpected because both men are due in Brussels Thursday to meet with EU officials.
Certain imports were almost completely cleaned up - it's not the level of oligarchs, but midi-garchs perhaps.
