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this squabble between Moscow and Kiev will go on this winter. As I sit here in my gas-heated home here in the US, I'm mindful of this story: Russia's gas war with Ukraine spreads deeper into Europe with the opening:

"Twelve European countries are now without any gas from Russia after Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic announced this morning that their supplies had halted altogether. Slovakia declared a state of energy emergency."

I'm thinking now about people I knew in Prague and Brno. Whether they're going to be able to stay warm this January.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 10:57:47 AM EST
According to Jerome it is typical to have 3 months' worth of reserves. Even taking into account the rule of thumb that winter demand is 3 times summer demand, it seems there shouldn't be a problem in January. And with twelve countries not getting any gas, political pressure on Ukraine and Russia to solve their dispute is likely to mount to the point where gas will start flowing again soon.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 11:01:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is the main transport corridor out of Ukraine to Germany, France and others. So bug cuts in Ukraine will translate in big cuts in the volumes in transit, but that does not mean that Slovakia is suddenly without gas. They can only be cut off if France and Germany are fully cut off, which is unlikely to last very long.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 11:09:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thank you.

I just watched the France 24 video. It was amazing to watch Pablo Nahkle continually try and emphasize the "political" dimension, which is a necessary precursor to demonizing Russia.

In other words, point well taken, M. Jerome. The next question is: what should European energy policy be? What are the goals, and the strategies to reach them?

Another diary, Jerome, and I look forward to it. Should keep you up a few nights, anyway.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 08:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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