I'd say Austria should be unlikely.

nanne:

ORF: Faymann gegen Blair als EU-Ratspräsidenten

Bundeskanzler Werner Faymann (SPÖ) hat sich heute klar gegen die Berufung des früheren britischen Premierministers Tony Blair zum EU-Ratspräsidenten ausgesprochen. Er begründete das mit Blairs engem politischen Verhältnis zum früheren US-Präsidenten George W. Bush.

Der Kandidat für diesen Posten solle die Sozialdemokratie widerspiegeln, sagte Faymann heute beim Parteitag der Salzburger SPÖ in Zell am See, aber: "Wir brauchen einen Kandidaten, der nicht für Bush ist, sondern für Obama."

This is the most direct statement of opposition to Blair yet -- by a government leader. Also, some more from Fischler (former Commissioner) in the piece. No time to translate, but I think you get the gist. h/t to Quatremer

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.

Finland, having an unannounced candidate itself, could also be placed in the unlikely bin.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

Regrettably Cowen said he was for Blair - in recognition of Blairs contribution to the Peace Process.  However that was before Mary Robinson started getting popular traction, and Cowen would not want to be seen as supporting a foreign nominee against an Irish (albeit ex-Labour) candidate.  Expect to see some trimming if Mary does actually get some foreign Governmental support - the key requirement for any candidate to be deemed "serious".

So at this stage, you should probably put Ireland in the "Probably" for Blair camp - at least on a first count - unless at least one other country nominates Robinson.  I would be surprised if Irish diplomats weren't taking the temperature at this point.  No one wants to be associated with a loser - especially if there was a home town candidate on offer.

notes from no w here

Against 14
Austria 10
Luxembourg 4

Unlikely 137
Belgium 12
Finland 7
Germany 29
Greece 12
Netherlands 13
Poland 27
Spain 27
Sweden 10

Likely 14
Denmark 7
Ireland 7

For 58
Italy 29
United Kingdom 29

Unknown 122
Cyprus 4
Czech Republic 12
Bulgaria 10
Estonia 4
France 29
Hungary 12
Latvia 4
Lithuania 7
Malta 3
Portugal 12
Romania 14
Slovakia 7
Slovenia 4

Total 345

Needed to win: 255 votes from 18 different states and 62% of the population
Blocking minorities consist of: 111 votes or 10 member states or 39% of the population.

Blair seems to be far away from his goal.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma