I cannot believe his intervention now is part ot the Bliar PR strategy. Blair needs people to be reminded of his "lap dog" status within Neo-con circles like he needs a hole in the head. Having avowed Eurosceptics sing your praises must be the stupidist election strategy I ever heard. Does Europe want to become a lapdog like Blair is the implicit offer - one I suspect even European Conservatives - with the exception of Berlusconi - will not want to be associated with.
Berlsconi's support should be enough to kill off any candidacy, but what are the Eastern European states saying - particularly those looking to NATO for security. If Blair cannot dredge up support there he is lost. Vaclav Klaus is also giving such naked nationalism a bad name. The odds on a Mary Robinson type candidate must be shortening... notes from no w here
The European Council shall elect its President, by a qualified majority, for a term of two and a half years, renewable once. In the event of an impediment or serious misconduct, the European Council can end the President's term of office in accordance with the same procedure. ... As from 1 November 2014, a qualified majority shall be defined as at least 55 % of the members of the Council, comprising at least fifteen of them and representing Member States comprising at least 65 % of the population of the Union. A blocking minority must include at least four Council members, failing which the qualified majority shall be deemed attained. The other arrangements governing the qualified majority are laid down in Article 238(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The transitional provisions relating to the definition of the qualified majority which shall be applicable until 31 October 2014 and those which shall be applicable from 1 November 2014 to 31 March 2017 are laid down in the Protocol on transitional provisions. ... Until 31 October 2014, the following provisions shall remain in force, without prejudice to the second subparagraph of Article 235(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. For acts of the European Council and of the Council requiring a qualified majority, members' votes shall be weighted as follows: Belgium 12 Bulgaria 10 Czech Republic 12 Denmark 7 Germany 29 Estonia 4 Ireland 7 Greece 12 Spain 27 France 29 Italy 29 Cyprus 4 Latvia 4 Lithuania 7 Luxembourg 4 Hungary 12 Malta 3 Netherlands 13 Austria 10 Poland 27 Portugal 12 Romania 14 Slovenia 4 Slovakia 7 Finland 7 Sweden 10 United Kingdom 29 Acts shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing a majority of the members where, under the Treaties, they must be adopted on a proposal from the Commission. In other cases decisions shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing at least two thirds of the members. A member of the European Council or the Council may request that, where an act is adopted by the European Council or the Council by a qualified majority, a check is made to ensure that the Member States comprising the qualified majority represent at least 62 % of the total population of the Union. If that proves not to be the case, the act shall not be adopted.
...
As from 1 November 2014, a qualified majority shall be defined as at least 55 % of the members of the Council, comprising at least fifteen of them and representing Member States comprising at least 65 % of the population of the Union. A blocking minority must include at least four Council members, failing which the qualified majority shall be deemed attained. The other arrangements governing the qualified majority are laid down in Article 238(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
The transitional provisions relating to the definition of the qualified majority which shall be applicable until 31 October 2014 and those which shall be applicable from 1 November 2014 to 31 March 2017 are laid down in the Protocol on transitional provisions.
Until 31 October 2014, the following provisions shall remain in force, without prejudice to the second subparagraph of Article 235(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. For acts of the European Council and of the Council requiring a qualified majority, members' votes shall be weighted as follows: Belgium 12 Bulgaria 10 Czech Republic 12 Denmark 7 Germany 29 Estonia 4 Ireland 7 Greece 12 Spain 27 France 29 Italy 29 Cyprus 4 Latvia 4 Lithuania 7 Luxembourg 4 Hungary 12 Malta 3 Netherlands 13 Austria 10 Poland 27 Portugal 12 Romania 14 Slovenia 4 Slovakia 7 Finland 7 Sweden 10 United Kingdom 29 Acts shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing a majority of the members where, under the Treaties, they must be adopted on a proposal from the Commission. In other cases decisions shall be adopted if there are at least 255 votes in favour representing at least two thirds of the members. A member of the European Council or the Council may request that, where an act is adopted by the European Council or the Council by a qualified majority, a check is made to ensure that the Member States comprising the qualified majority represent at least 62 % of the total population of the Union. If that proves not to be the case, the act shall not be adopted.
Against: Luxembourg 4
Unlikely: Belgium 12 Germany 29 Greece 12 Spain 27 Netherlands 13 Sweden 10 Poland 27
Probable: Denmark 7
Supporting: Italy 29 United Kingdom 29
Unknown: Bulgaria 10 Czech Republic 12 Estonia 4 France 29 Ireland 7 Cyprus 4 Latvia 4 Lithuania 7 Hungary 12 Malta 3 Austria 10 Portugal 12 Romania 14 Slovenia 4 Slovakia 7 Finland 7
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
nanne:
ORF: Faymann gegen Blair als EU-Ratspräsidenten Bundeskanzler Werner Faymann (SPÖ) hat sich heute klar gegen die Berufung des früheren britischen Premierministers Tony Blair zum EU-Ratspräsidenten ausgesprochen. Er begründete das mit Blairs engem politischen Verhältnis zum früheren US-Präsidenten George W. Bush. Der Kandidat für diesen Posten solle die Sozialdemokratie widerspiegeln, sagte Faymann heute beim Parteitag der Salzburger SPÖ in Zell am See, aber: "Wir brauchen einen Kandidaten, der nicht für Bush ist, sondern für Obama." This is the most direct statement of opposition to Blair yet -- by a government leader. Also, some more from Fischler (former Commissioner) in the piece. No time to translate, but I think you get the gist. h/t to Quatremer
Bundeskanzler Werner Faymann (SPÖ) hat sich heute klar gegen die Berufung des früheren britischen Premierministers Tony Blair zum EU-Ratspräsidenten ausgesprochen. Er begründete das mit Blairs engem politischen Verhältnis zum früheren US-Präsidenten George W. Bush. Der Kandidat für diesen Posten solle die Sozialdemokratie widerspiegeln, sagte Faymann heute beim Parteitag der Salzburger SPÖ in Zell am See, aber: "Wir brauchen einen Kandidaten, der nicht für Bush ist, sondern für Obama."
Der Kandidat für diesen Posten solle die Sozialdemokratie widerspiegeln, sagte Faymann heute beim Parteitag der Salzburger SPÖ in Zell am See, aber: "Wir brauchen einen Kandidaten, der nicht für Bush ist, sondern für Obama."
So at this stage, you should probably put Ireland in the "Probably" for Blair camp - at least on a first count - unless at least one other country nominates Robinson. I would be surprised if Irish diplomats weren't taking the temperature at this point. No one wants to be associated with a loser - especially if there was a home town candidate on offer. notes from no w here
Unlikely 137 Belgium 12 Finland 7 Germany 29 Greece 12 Netherlands 13 Poland 27 Spain 27 Sweden 10
Likely 14 Denmark 7 Ireland 7
For 58 Italy 29 United Kingdom 29
Unknown 122 Cyprus 4 Czech Republic 12 Bulgaria 10 Estonia 4 France 29 Hungary 12 Latvia 4 Lithuania 7 Malta 3 Portugal 12 Romania 14 Slovakia 7 Slovenia 4
Total 345
Needed to win: 255 votes from 18 different states and 62% of the population Blocking minorities consist of: 111 votes or 10 member states or 39% of the population.
Blair seems to be far away from his goal. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Poland got the new voting weights postponed to 2014, or something.
Blocking minorities consist of: 111 votes
The Economist and Stelzer are making Blair noise too, though their effect on European opinion at popular or governmental levels is quite possibly negative. That's really my point. In the effort to keep "Blair favourite" on the boil, they've run out of firewood. But it's also possible that even weak pro-Blair stories are considered better than yielding ground to anti-Blair stories.
And you can bet we'll hear more "leave Tony alone", "why all this hatred?", "stop Blair-baiting" stories.
The Economist and Stelzer are making Blair noise too, though their effect on European opinion at popular or governmental levels is quite possibly negative.
I'm not sure about the negativity of the governmental level effect of The Economist... It probably brought out Faymann's reaction, but the question is the new members and Portugal. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Thus looking at how those odds change over time will be one indicator of how public perceptions are changing (and perhaps also some semi-informed insider trading).
The very fact that Mary Robinson is on the list at the present time is a good start. Lets see how the odds change... notes from no w here
It's also the use made of it by one or two eager beavers in the political press, who didn't even notice there was anything wrong with Paddy Power's crap.
But on half a field of non-starters, and with a possible front-runner missing? If they did that in horse-racing they'd be up in court.
Not at all. The runners haven't been declared yet and anyone can propose anyone at the moment - Mary Robinson probably coming from left field as far as many Heads of Government are concerned. The fact that Lipponen isn't mentioned merely means few in Ireland/UK have heard of him and none have asked to lay a bet. (There's an opening for you - you'll get good odds on a first bet...;-))
The fact that this qualifies as "news" on a slow news day in the MSM (which repeats the "President of Europe" crap) says more about the MSM than the PP marketing strategy which specialises in quirky news attention grabbing stunts. It's in the entertainment business, not Europolitics, and shouldn't be taken any more seriously than that.
I suspect the MSM seized on it because it does offer some kind of list and some way of measuring the relative perceived chances of many of the key players - late entrants notwithstanding. As I said above it will be interesting to see how the odds change based on where the bets are laid based on what the MSM say based on what some would be insiders say based on what some insiders may or may not have said. notes from no w here
As for the "political commentary" people that featured it, I don't think people who are paid to do political analysis and commentary are unaware of what they are doing.
interesting to see how the odds change
Can you be serious?
