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The real trade-off is between calling the bank's bluff now and seeing if the sky falls or accepting their demands now and waiting for the sky to most assuredly fall.
"As far as Professor Stiglitz is concerned, he made the same criticism of the U.S. bank package, which is now proved to be a tremendous success."

Two words: "Just wait!

Bailouts are preventing recovery. By this time during the Great Depression of the 1930s the bad debt had been dealt with and was no longer a millstone around the neck of the economy.  But other actions or refusal of actions by the Fed and the US Government made things worse.  We have learned about not repeating the latter.  But the bailouts have prevented any resolution of the bad debt overhang and this is poisoning the economy.  Lenihan can speak of the US bailout as having "proved to be a tremendous success" when unemployment is back to 6%, the remaining banks actually are solvent and the GDP/National Debt is back to within 10% of where it was prior to the crisis.

I seriously doubt that he, or most of us, will live so long as to see that in the USA or Ireland unless the course of action of the respective governments is radically changed.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 10:18:52 AM EST
ARGeezer:
By this time during the Great Depression of the 1930s the bad debt had been dealt with and was no longer a millstone around the neck of the economy.
In Globalization and its Discontents, Stiglitz criticised the bank bailouts that were seen during the 1997 Asian crisis and its aftershocks, so he's being consistent.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 10:31:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I liked that book a lot, but loaned it out before I was finished, expecting it back.  Looks like I'll have to buy another copy.  The Brazilian economist Dr.  André Lara Resende made similar claims in a guest column in Wm. Buiter's Mavrecon.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2009 at 12:36:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geezer's law:
BQ (book quality)=1/ROR (ROR=the rate of return).


Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Oct 21st, 2009 at 07:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Strangely enough, Larry Summers has been consistently making a similar claim: he argues that the banking system in the US has averaged a major collapse requiring government bailout every 3 years since the 1970s and that this indicates systemic trouble.

To me, the trouble with Stiglitz's arguments, and to a much greater extent the trouble with people like Krugman is that they are starting from a from a more orthodox economic analysis than even Summers. In actuality, the banks do have a gun to the head of the world governments and the difference between banana republics and Ireland or UK and USA in this case is not so great. If you begin from the position that the banks have captured decisive political control over the last 20 years, then the naivete of the idea that "governments" should just put their feet down and let "the market" clean up, becomes more apparent.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Summers has been articulating a more "radical" critique of the banking system than Krugman, and perhaps than Stiglitz.

by rootless2 on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 05:12:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
rootless2:
Larry Summers has been consistently making a similar claim: he argues that the banking system in the US has averaged a major collapse requiring government bailout every 3 years since the 1970s and that this indicates systemic trouble.
Do you have references to this? I'd like to read more...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 05:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Supposedly he has been saying this since 2007

http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20091016/a_crisis_every_three_years

by rootless2 on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 06:10:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He says "the financial system functions in America and around the world", i.e, including the Asian crisis, for example.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 06:45:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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