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The better-diversified your portfolio the closer the default rate of the bonds in it will approach the long-term average. So, instead of a lottery you pretty much guarantee yourself a constant default rate.

Starvid:

make sure the bonds are short term, so you have time to get out if the company/country that issued it starts looking shaky
But then you have to sell the bond when it's beginning to lose value.

And if everyone follows the same strategy, at the first sign of wobbliness on the part of the issuer there will be a sell-off and your bonds will lose more of their value.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 08:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, instead of a lottery you pretty much guarantee yourself a constant default rate.

That's the idea, not the problem. Feature, not bug.

And if everyone follows the same strategy, at the first sign of wobbliness on the part of the issuer there will be a sell-off and your bonds will lose more of their value.

Not a problem if you have short term bonds and hold them to maturity.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Starvid:

Not a problem if you have short term bonds and hold them to maturity.
But you were supposed to be able to sell them when the issuer gets in trouble. So in that case you don't hold them to maturity but instead sell them.

And in a parallel comment you want to receive coupon payments from the bonds which, if they have maturities not exceeding a year, typically won't pay coupons.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:29:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the maturities are short, there will never ever be any need to sell them prematurely.  Companies don't go from solid to shit in a second. If som they weren't solid to begin with and you shouldn't have bought the bond, unless you're into junk bonds.

It doesn't really matter if you recieve a coupon, or if you but the bond for less than you get back from the issuer, at least if the maturities are short (the bond fund I have has an average amturity of 0.15 years).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:53:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Starvid:
an average amturity of 0.15 years
And what's the return on that?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:56:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
About 0.5 % currently. A year ago it was 5 %.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:02:46 AM EST
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