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I doubt it. Demographical change seems to be far more damaging to the saving strategy than to public pensions. If the ratio of active and retired persons changes in a tax financed scheme a linear adjustment of the contribution will suffice.
In an asset backed scheme a youth bulge will drive up all asset classes and the following retirement will drop them like lead.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:38:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that youth bulges in a single state strike hard at public pen sion schemes, while the capital markets are affected by the average of youth bulges, and as different countries hit the demograpihic rollover att different times, it will have a smoother effect on capital markets.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 09:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In practice that would mean investing outside the EU and probably in non OECD countries. There aren't that many developing countries I'd bet my retirement on being stable for the next forty years.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:04:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope. Lots of non-OECD companies have a very large fraction of their business in developing countries. Like ABB, HSBC, Siemens, AREVA and so on.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2009 at 11:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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