In this scenario, his ally Jung would have headed back to the state of Hessen to replace him as Minister President there, while Schäuble would've headed to Brussels. Instead, Merkel sent Oettinger (who can be counted as an ally) to Brussels, and put her former rival Schäuble on finance.
On balance, the move from interior to finance neither increases nor decreases Schäuble's influence, though perhaps finance doesn't play as well to his 'strengths'. At any rate, he is by now a distinctly old guard CDU politician. Meanwhile, as DoDo notes, Jung was demoted from Defence to social affairs, and Merkel brought two of her close allies (De Maizière and Röttgen) into the two extra slots the CDU had, got another ally (Pofalla) as the head of the Chancellery and hung on to her old troops, strongly increasing her grip on both the cabinet and the CDU.
The man waiting in the wings, Christian Wulff, neither gains nor loses, which on balance is also a loss. Merkel will continue to head the CDU into the next elections - the only ones who can now bring her to fall are her own allies.
Meanwhile, the FDP got a number of influential posts, but is counterbalanced by CDU or CSU ministers on most policy areas. The only topic they can really try to own is development assistance (by virtue of also having the economy ministry), which happens to be one of the topics the party cares least for.
Given how well Merkel managed to maneuver in a coalition of equals, this should be child's play. So, this is her government, any decisions it makes, she owns.
A week ago, Wulff publicly criticised the FDP's intransigence in the coalition talks (they would not bend an inch on their tax cut demands). I saw this as an obvious attempt to force Merkel's ahnd, and so did Christoph Schwennicke who wrote the Black Widow Chancellor op-ed in SPIEGEL:
Wulff's attack on Westerwelle and his taxes came across as light teasing. Beneath it though, lay an attack on the chancellor herself -- it was basically a criticism of the fact that Merkel had let the negotiations on this issue go on for so painfully long. And if the boss didn't nip this discussion with the FDP in the bud shortly, then he would do it himself -- that was Wulff's indirect swipe at Merkel. It could also be construed as something of a bid for power within the party.
Merkel simply ignored him -- and then Wulff (and Koch) were left out of the final talks. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Could you write more on this?
It was my impression that sending Oettinger to Brussels was on one hand the neutralisation of another loose gun, on the other hand damage control for the Baden-Württenberg CDU that tanked in the federal elections. Even if Merkel 'forgot' about how Oettinger defeated Schavan in 2005, Oettingher's attemts at initiatives on the federal level over the past four years must have been a headache for Merkel. Not to mention his scandals. (For others; a short Oettinger profile in a diary one one of his scandals: Whitewashing History (or: Judging a Judge)) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Oettinger - zur EU weggelobt | RP ONLINE
Oettingers Verhältnis zur Kanzlerin gilt spätestens seit seiner missglückten Trauerrede auf Hans Filbinger als getrübt. Damals versuchte er den Stuttgarter Ex-Regierungschef von dessen NS-Vergangenheit reinzuwaschen. Die CDU-Chefin zwang ihn zu einem Widerruf. Eine Karriere in Berlin war danach passé - zumal der Schwabe mit forschen Vorstößen zur Unzeit immer wieder seine eigene Partei brüskierte - etwa als er im Wahlkampf für eine höhere Mehrwertsteuer warb. Unbequem dürfte der Schwabe aber auch in der Ferne bleiben. "Der Günther wird in Brüssel nicht Merkels braver Vollstrecker", prophezeit eine langjährige politische Weggefährtin, die im EU-Parlament sitzt. Klar scheint: Oettinger will als Kommissar ohne Rücksicht auf Parteitaktik einen stramm wirtschaftsliberalen Kurs einschlagen. Notfalls auch gegen die Kanzlerin. Beim Kampf gegen das VW-Gesetz versuchte er dies schon mal - und zog den Kürzeren. Merkel schlug sich frühzeitig auf die Seite von Niedersachsens Regierungschef Christian Wulff. Der verteidigte schließlich erfolgreich die Vetorechte seines Landes im VW-Aufsichtsrat gegen die Kommission und den Stuttgarter Sportwagenbauer Porsche. Es kam am Ende genau andersherum. Oettinger musste Hohn und Spott ertragen.
Oettingers Verhältnis zur Kanzlerin gilt spätestens seit seiner missglückten Trauerrede auf Hans Filbinger als getrübt. Damals versuchte er den Stuttgarter Ex-Regierungschef von dessen NS-Vergangenheit reinzuwaschen. Die CDU-Chefin zwang ihn zu einem Widerruf. Eine Karriere in Berlin war danach passé - zumal der Schwabe mit forschen Vorstößen zur Unzeit immer wieder seine eigene Partei brüskierte - etwa als er im Wahlkampf für eine höhere Mehrwertsteuer warb.
Unbequem dürfte der Schwabe aber auch in der Ferne bleiben. "Der Günther wird in Brüssel nicht Merkels braver Vollstrecker", prophezeit eine langjährige politische Weggefährtin, die im EU-Parlament sitzt. Klar scheint: Oettinger will als Kommissar ohne Rücksicht auf Parteitaktik einen stramm wirtschaftsliberalen Kurs einschlagen. Notfalls auch gegen die Kanzlerin.
Beim Kampf gegen das VW-Gesetz versuchte er dies schon mal - und zog den Kürzeren. Merkel schlug sich frühzeitig auf die Seite von Niedersachsens Regierungschef Christian Wulff. Der verteidigte schließlich erfolgreich die Vetorechte seines Landes im VW-Aufsichtsrat gegen die Kommission und den Stuttgarter Sportwagenbauer Porsche. Es kam am Ende genau andersherum. Oettinger musste Hohn und Spott ertragen.
(Summary in English: Merkel's relationship with Oettinger took a nosedive when she had to manage his scandal created by his funeral speech for a former Nazi. This didn't improve when Oettinger took the European Commission's side against the "Volkswagen Law". While sending him to Brussels will remove Oettinger as a domestic risk factor, as Commisioner he may stay true to his marketista faith, and confront Merkel.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
