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The ability to buy undated "units" of natural gas would offer an additional way to hedge against currency volatility as well. Just about now I would be very interested in such a capability, looking, as I am, at the prospects of the dollar declining wrt other currencies by 50% or more over the next few years, or possibly sooner.  The value of these units would, of course, fluctuate with weather and the level of economic activity, but with a window of several years in which to sell the units, that could be timed to some extent.

Would flows of money into such unit investments be likely to show the same correlations with unit price as flows of retirement fund money into oil futures showed over the last two years?  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 26th, 2009 at 03:58:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
Would flows of money into such unit investments be likely to show the same correlations with unit price as flows of retirement fund money into oil futures showed over the last two years?  

This interview sets out my views on the role of ETFs in the energy markets.

I would argue that a combination of direct transactions between producers and consumers in the physical gas market with the use of Units for investment and payment would combine to cure the problems of the current dysfunctional market.

In particular, investors need no longer get shafted by intermediaries the way they do now, because transaction costs are massively reduced, and they would potentially have the choice of using Units in payment for gas supplied if there are no investors bidding at an acceptable price.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Oct 26th, 2009 at 08:50:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is precisely the risk from predatory intermediaries that keep me out of such markets. I have full confidence that those markets will be manipulated to the benefit of the intermediaries and the detriment of the investors.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2009 at 05:21:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The energy markets - particularly the physical/OTC market aptly named the Brent Complex - are now IMHO little less than systemic pillage.

Galbraith's 'Bezzle' comes to mind -an economic loss where the losers do not know that they are losing....well actually, they do, but they can't work out quite how....

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Oct 27th, 2009 at 05:39:42 PM EST
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