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nanne:
It isn't impossible that we'll see something like that. On the other hand half of the stuff Davis mentions are 'in or out' questions - there's no question on acceptance of internal market regulation or on the trade mandate. In fact, if the UK wants serious opt outs from internal market regulations it couldn't even get into the EEA when it leaves the EU.
Can Davis really want out of the Single Market?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 05:41:45 AM EST
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He's a nut.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 05:44:18 AM EST
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That doesn't mean he won't get to set or influence policy.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 05:53:23 AM EST
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There are many nuts in the Tory party. If the tories get elected, though, and there are no large UKIP gains to pressure them towards a more eurosceptic stance, I think the Eton boys are going to be the ones doing the kniving.

That'd still leave Dave with that fruitcake Hannan and his nice Polish allies in the EP, so it won't be the end of his headaches.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:07:55 AM EST
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The UKIP tends to only poll well in the EU elections, unlike the BNP which polls uniformly across elections. The UKIP is just an explicitly anti-EU Tory vote.

But if Cameron doesn't manage to tranquilize the base the UKIP might wind up running a successful spoiler campaign in the 2010 General.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:12:22 AM EST
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I'd doubt that. Europe is a second order issue for the Tory base. They despise the EU, surely, but they won't care about it enough to vote UKIP. My prediction is that there will be zero UKIP seats and that UKIP will poll under 5% across England. UKIP might only depress the degree to which the Tories get a lopsided victory.

If I'm wrong about this, though, we'll be in for interesting times.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:25:28 AM EST
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There's a scenario in which the UKIP protest vote, while failing to get any seats, causes a hung parliament.

And with EU membership as the hot-button issue, a Tory-LibDem government becomes impossible.

Interesting times, indeed.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:40:08 AM EST
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I'd think a Tory - LibDem government would be highly unlikely in either case. If there's a hung parliament, the UK will get a Labour - LibDem or (hopefully!) a LibDem - Labour government.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:56:29 AM EST
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That just sounds like an echo of the Lib Lab pact of the late seventies

Well running the current predicted figures through electoral calculus site, it dosn't take more than about 1 in 20 tory voters from current scores to defect to UKIP for a hung parliament to occur.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 07:59:50 AM EST
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nanne:
If the tories get elected, though, and there are no large UKIP gains to pressure them towards a more eurosceptic stance, I think the Eton boys are going to be the ones doing the kniving.
That might lead to the knived nuts splintering and joining with the UKIP making it a national party.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 07:17:24 AM EST
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Would be funny if 30 or so hardline eurosceptics exit the Tory party after the elections to form a UKIP party in Parliament. I don't know if they're that nutty, but they might threaten something if the Tory victory is tight enough.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 07:39:45 AM EST
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