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The UKIP tends to only poll well in the EU elections, unlike the BNP which polls uniformly across elections. The UKIP is just an explicitly anti-EU Tory vote.

But if Cameron doesn't manage to tranquilize the base the UKIP might wind up running a successful spoiler campaign in the 2010 General.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:12:22 AM EST
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I'd doubt that. Europe is a second order issue for the Tory base. They despise the EU, surely, but they won't care about it enough to vote UKIP. My prediction is that there will be zero UKIP seats and that UKIP will poll under 5% across England. UKIP might only depress the degree to which the Tories get a lopsided victory.

If I'm wrong about this, though, we'll be in for interesting times.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:25:28 AM EST
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There's a scenario in which the UKIP protest vote, while failing to get any seats, causes a hung parliament.

And with EU membership as the hot-button issue, a Tory-LibDem government becomes impossible.

Interesting times, indeed.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:40:08 AM EST
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I'd think a Tory - LibDem government would be highly unlikely in either case. If there's a hung parliament, the UK will get a Labour - LibDem or (hopefully!) a LibDem - Labour government.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:56:29 AM EST
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That just sounds like an echo of the Lib Lab pact of the late seventies

Well running the current predicted figures through electoral calculus site, it dosn't take more than about 1 in 20 tory voters from current scores to defect to UKIP for a hung parliament to occur.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 07:59:50 AM EST
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