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What is achievable and sustainable with 40% of the ecological footprint of "The West"? What is "standard" and what is "style" of living? What is a luxury? How fast can a transition take place before people perceive it traumatically? Lifestyle is encouraged and incentivated by the state and the large corporations by means of tax policy, product design and price decisions. It is the narrative that is used to sell the changes that matters.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 17th, 2009 at 09:13:20 AM EST
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All good questions.  People tend to take the status quo for granted, so, for example, if you are used to having a car in a rural area, losing that car can be traumatic, whilst replacing it with a much more efficient smaller, diesel or electric car may not be.

So taxation, pricing, design innovations, marketing narratives etc. can all have a major influences but run into major "consumer resistance" if a major adjustment in consumer lifestyle is required.  Yes people will accept major changes, especially over time, but that is where politics and education gets much harder.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 17th, 2009 at 09:24:01 AM EST
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See, for instance, the late rdf's How Big Would a Steady-State US Economy Be? (October 10, 2006)
Thus, a fully sustainable society will have to consume no more than it can grow and will have to recycle non-renewable raw materials. If controlled fusion could ever be made to work then we could exist at a slightly higher level of material wealth, but the need to recycle raw materials would still be an issue.

So, a sustainable US society would be about 10-15% of its present size. At this level people would have about the same wealth as those in present Bulgaria. Obviously, a big change from McMansions, but not the end of civilization either.

I'll leave to another day discussions of how to achieve this peacefully, what people would do in such a reduced economy and how social services would be financed.

Another discussion that we had elsewhere is that reducing output to 10%/15% of its present value would lead to a very different place than simply looking around at the places that now have an output in that range. The reason is that you start out from a higher technological level and better infrastructure.

My figure of 40% above is based on the estimates I've seen that the global ecological footprint is about 2.5 Earths (this, from memory - might be a different number).

So, how "poor" is "sustainable". I claim it need not be poor at all, as long as it's a managed transition. If we get there by means of a war or some other disaster it will be a much poorer place than it needs to be.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 17th, 2009 at 10:27:04 AM EST
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