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Herman who? The world greets new EU President - Europe, World - The Independent
Muted reaction suggests global community would have preferred Blair, reports John Lichfield

Limp waves of polite puzzlement circled the globe yesterday as leaders adjusted to the news that the much ballyhooed EU President would be a mild-mannered, competent manager rather than a charismatic new "face" for Europe.

The US President, Barack Obama, said that he "looked forward to working closely" with both the new European Council President, Herman van Rompuy, and the EU's first foreign minister, Baroness Ashton. He said the "two new positions" would make the European Union an "even stronger partner to the United States".

It was noticeable, however, that President Obama also declared that he intended to "work closely" with the European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso - a tacit recognition that there had been no real landslip in power and influence in Brussels.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 21st, 2009 at 12:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fran:
much ballyhooed EU President

Ballyhooed by pundits like John Lichfield. The noise about a "big" president was entirely in the Blair campaign's interest. Who else was talking about it?

Fran:

there had been no real landslip in power and influence in Brussels.

There was never meant to be, except in the dreams of (see above).

Herman who? The world greets new EU President - Europe, World - The Independent

The man who created the idea of a "European President", the former French president, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing,

Historically inexact. Chirac probably first mooted it, followed immediately and with enthusiasm by none other than Tony Blair.

Herman who? The world greets new EU President - Europe, World - The Independent

According to a snap, EU-wide opinion poll, European citizens were non-plussed by, but largely indifferent to, the choice of Mr Van Rompuy. The international polling agency Proximity Panels, said that Mr Van Rompuy's name rang a bell with only one in eight Europeans compared to seven in 10 for Mr Blair. One in three EU citizens would have favoured Mr Blair for "President of Europe", compared to one in 20 for Mr Van Rompuy.

"Snap" you bet. Who put money behind this? Where are the questions? How was it organized? And "President of Europe" is a dead giveaway.

John Lichfield, Blairite concern troll and useless foreign correspondent.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Nov 21st, 2009 at 01:46:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi sir, madam,

This is Steven Deketelaere speaking, chairman of Proximity Panels. We organised the 17-country study about the EU-president, about which you expressed some doubts on this tribune.

All details about this study can be found on www.proximitypanels.com. All technical details are there at your disposal.

In case you need some extra feedback, please contact me on steven.deketelaere@proximitypanels.com.

Just for your info: As from November 2009 Proximity Panels was founded. Proximity Panels "unites the best of local research panels worldwide.

As a PR-promo stunt, Proximity Panels decided to organise an international opinion poll concerning the election of the first European President. It did so at this speed of light: the entire set-up, national media-partner search for exclusive publication of the results, fieldwork and last but not least data-analysis & reporting, only took 5 working days in total. The initiative was launched on November 11, 2009. Since there was as tight deadline, decision on the first EU-President by the European top politicians is foreseen on November 19th in Brussels, this was the ideal occasion to launch Proximity Panels publicly since it had to go fast so high-performance level could be proven and since Proximity Panels is a European initiative founded by European companies for which the event of a First EU-President is not just very interesting for an opinion poll but also very symbolic.

Best regards,

Steven Deketelaere

by stevendk on Mon Nov 23rd, 2009 at 06:10:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting.
Based on the results a large European opinion study from the international opinion polling agency Proximity Panels, it became apparent that the Belgian Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy, is only known by 12% of the European citizens. The name Tony Blair (UK) on the other hand rings a bell for 70% of the European citizens. Second best, but lagging behind, is Mary Robinson from Ireland who is known by 1 out of 5 Europeans (19%).

The number 1 favorite candidate by far is Tony Blair. Almost 1/3 of the Europeans are convinced he makes an ideal candidate. The Belgian Herman Van Rompuy only appeals to 5% or 1 out of 20.

On the other hand, the fact that he is Belgian seems to make up for it, since only 1% vetoes a Belgian candidate, whereas putting a Brit in charge would be a bad move according to 16% of the Europeans.

An immediate question arises. Would your data allow you to run a mock "single transferable vote"? It would appear that, with his high negative rating, Blair may have the most "first-preference" votes but would end up not winning.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 23rd, 2009 at 06:18:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"European President", "EU-President"? Did your poll questions use these misnomers, too?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Nov 23rd, 2009 at 06:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hello, stevendk, and thanks for contributing.

First of all, let me point out that I was responding to John Lichfield's quote of your poll. And he is wrong on two points:

  • it is not an "EU-wide" poll. Your poll (proximity panels) covered 17 out of 27 EU countries. The countries not covered were (correct me if I'm wrong): Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus, Romania, Greece, Luxembourg, Hungary, and Ireland.

  • "one in three" EU citizens (from 17 out of 27 countries) did not state a preference for Blair: 29% did. In your own summary, you call that "almost a third", which is pushing it (29% is situated between a quarter and a third... and is slightly closer to a quarter. Why not say: "rather more than a quarter"?). The journalist has already turned that into one out of three. Next stop, "almost half"?

More generally, this poll is (predictably enough) really about name recognition. Blair's name "rings a bell" -- it's not surprising to see that he gets more support than those who are not as well known. People aren't going to reply favourably for those they've never heard of. So polling in this way offers a massively tilted playing field for political celebrities.

Your poll further skews the issue by referring exclusively to the post of "European President". This post does not exist. It's "President of the European Council". The difference is not trivial. The compromise that resulted from the negotiations on the Constitutional Treaty (that became the Lisbon Treaty) was that this post should not be a "big" one in which a high-profile politician would draw power towards himself, but a lower-profile one that called for a more modest figure capable of advancing the work of the European Council and finding agreement between the member states. (You'll find backing for this in a piece I wrote, A-B-C, The Seven Dwarfs, And The Giant Bird).

So when your poll refers to the European President, you are not asking the right question. You are presupposing the "big" presidential position Blair would have liked to have, and not the lower-profile reality. (This is what I meant by saying "President of Europe" is a dead giveaway). This unfortunately slants your poll (whether you meant this or not) in a direction favourable to the big celebrity, Tony Blair.

We too organized something around this new appointment. As unpaid volunteers (European Tribune is not a business) a small group of us ran an online petition. We did this with no budget at all, and no advertising. Even in these conditions, the Stop Blair! petition gathered over 45,000 signatures, of which well over 43,000 are from all EU nationalities, against Blair's appointment. Not the same as a poll? No, but significative all the same of a strong current of anti-Blair feeling across the EU.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Nov 23rd, 2009 at 08:06:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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