At which point Israel had better have a good answer for the palestinians about how they're gonna make things right. keep to the Fen Causeway
I don't know how we know that 'they [the U.S.] are a long way from that yet'. It seems to me that this depends entirely on one's idea of what 'a long way' is. In my view, from here to there is not at all what I'd call a long way.
Once the US $ comes "unhinged"---as it seems to be in the process of becoming---the time remaining before the U.S. economy's untenable situation becomes too flagrantly apparent even for Americans to ignore or make-believe about is nearly at hand, it seems to me. When could that happen? Virtually any time now.
According to a scenario offered by Nouriel Roubini, there's a massive "carry trade" now fueling the rises in global stock-markets. Under this view, people borrow U.S.$ and then use them to invest elsewhere than in the U.S., where the returns are better. This drives current stock-market levels up but it cannot go on indefinitely because there are no valid "fundamentals" to support this behavior. The carry trade investments will end when enough people reach a level of nervousness at which they're no longer confident in the near-term plausibility of such borrowing---that is, anything that temporarily drives a credible expectation in some (sufficiently inconvenient) increase in the cost of borrowing U.S.§--- and then they'll stop. When that happens, it could trigger a massive rush for the exits as people sell off the holdings they took on with the borrowed money.
What would happen then to the exchange value of the U.S. $ when suddenly relatively few or none wanted to hold them any longer? What would happen to foreign debt obligations of the U.S.? Would the Chinese stand around as their billions of U.S. credits dissolved into worthlessness?
And all the above preceded my finding this, from Roubini's blog:
"A Tale of Two American Economies"
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257995/a_tale_of_two_american_economies "In such an environment it is not surprising that the ills of technology should seem curable only through the application of more technology..." John W Aldridge
