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The current low-key choices are good for Europe internally as a holding action, while the EU coheres. Apart from his stated hostility to Turkey, Van Rompuy seems to be perfect, or at least good enough, for that.

But there's a continuing tension between scrappy charisma-politics, which is what happens at the national level in the EU, and the amorphous and not very well-defined push towards federalisation.

At some point those two trends are going to be personalised in a very public clash.

Blair would have forced that collision ahead of time, which would have been unpleasant for everyone, but interesting to watch.

The democratic problem hasn't been solved - Van Rompuys doesn't give the proles a reason to believe in the EU. That's not a huge problem now, but it's going to start becoming a problem within a term or two.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 20th, 2009 at 07:36:55 AM EST
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Assuming there's a push towards federalisation.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 20th, 2009 at 07:39:30 AM EST
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I think it's usually called 'closer cooperation.'
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 20th, 2009 at 09:20:30 AM EST
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There will be a push towards either federalisation or split-up. Having a (mostly) federal monetary policy without a complementing independent federal fiscal policy is inherently unstable. So either you need a federal fiscal policy, or the € needs to go away.

Besides, there are real issues of infrastructure and regional development that would benefit from federal involvement - high-capacity/high speed railways, water management along the Rhine and Donau rivers, fishing and environmental protection in the Mediterranean and Baltic seas, trans-European communications, phone and internet backbones, trans-European power generation and distribution and so on and so forth and etcetera.

Nationalists of all flavours can bitch and moan as much as they like - but geography and infrastructure are more powerful drivers in political unification than zeitgeist.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Nov 20th, 2009 at 09:47:48 PM EST
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Van Rompuys doesn't give the proles a reason to believe in the EU.

Nor should he -- I am more concerned that MEPs and Barroso fail to.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 20th, 2009 at 07:41:52 AM EST
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