Hinchey is the long term Democratic incumbent. I would only expect him to lose if Obama et al totally destroy the brand, which I doubt they will do in less than another year. But I could be wrong. And the Republicans are only likely to mount a serious challenge if they nominate a centrist, and we saw what happened with that in NY 23 with Bill Owens and that district was  Republican until the resignation of the incumbent to become Sec. of the Army.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."