Lord Mandelson has warned that the British Government will scrutinise any foreign takeover of Cadbury and oppose any buyer that fails to "respect" the historic confectioner, the subject of a £10.1bn hostile bid from Kraft Foods of the US yesterday. The Business Secretary said that while the Government would not oppose a takeover of Cadbury purely on the grounds that the buyer was foreign, it would fight any deal it thought smacked of short-term profiteering.
Lord Mandelson has warned that the British Government will scrutinise any foreign takeover of Cadbury and oppose any buyer that fails to "respect" the historic confectioner, the subject of a £10.1bn hostile bid from Kraft Foods of the US yesterday.
The Business Secretary said that while the Government would not oppose a takeover of Cadbury purely on the grounds that the buyer was foreign, it would fight any deal it thought smacked of short-term profiteering.
US Outlook: When the US last emerged from recession, after the dot.com bust, the Bush administration presided over what became known as the "jobless recovery". If they get it right, a new generation of leaders might just spark a jobs-led recovery. This week's White House "jobs summit" was a photo opportunity, but there is already the hum of ideas in the air about how government can support job creation. This is in contrast to the early 2000s, when the government cut taxes, sat back and waited for the jobs to materialise.
US Outlook: When the US last emerged from recession, after the dot.com bust, the Bush administration presided over what became known as the "jobless recovery". If they get it right, a new generation of leaders might just spark a jobs-led recovery.
This week's White House "jobs summit" was a photo opportunity, but there is already the hum of ideas in the air about how government can support job creation. This is in contrast to the early 2000s, when the government cut taxes, sat back and waited for the jobs to materialise.
If they get it right, a new generation of leaders might just spark a jobs-led recovery.
OK, fine.
1. Bomb the crap out of China; use nukes if you want to. Destroy their factories; level them.
Do that and watch what happens. Plenty of jobs. Done. In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
But there are a lot of things that america (and other economies) could and should do to boost or provide employment. Unfortunately the leader of the republican party doesn't believe those are real jobs. keep to the Fen Causeway
Bomb the shit out of them. Forget this Afghanistan crap. In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
With its vital political timing, next week's pre-election pre-Budget report could be an eventful affair. The Chancellor, Alistair Darling seems unlikely to announce a further special fiscal boost of any size, despite signs that the recovery is late but some economists have begun to talk up the chances of some minor voter-friendly wheezes, such as a temporary income-tax rebate. Many expect that Mr Darling will also take the opportunity to announce - or pre-announce - the sort of eye-catching measures that will help sharpen the Labour Party's message in the run-up to a general election. Moves on inheritance tax, income tax, VAT and capital gains tax have all been canvassed as ways for ministers to raise money and to reinforce the Government's differences with the Conservative programme. But the fragile state of the economy at present may militate towards postponement, if they are admitted at all.
With its vital political timing, next week's pre-election pre-Budget report could be an eventful affair. The Chancellor, Alistair Darling seems unlikely to announce a further special fiscal boost of any size, despite signs that the recovery is late but some economists have begun to talk up the chances of some minor voter-friendly wheezes, such as a temporary income-tax rebate.
Many expect that Mr Darling will also take the opportunity to announce - or pre-announce - the sort of eye-catching measures that will help sharpen the Labour Party's message in the run-up to a general election. Moves on inheritance tax, income tax, VAT and capital gains tax have all been canvassed as ways for ministers to raise money and to reinforce the Government's differences with the Conservative programme. But the fragile state of the economy at present may militate towards postponement, if they are admitted at all.
Mark Twain famously said that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. (If it didn't, technical analysis wouldn't work at all.) It also makes comparing today's bull market to that of 1982 an ear-splitting and scary exercise. As the second nastiest recession since World War II -- and the last time we had 10.2% unemployment -- one might think comparing 1982 to 2009 would offer insights into share prices. Barry Ritholtz certainly thinks so. The CEO and director of research at FusionIQ put together such a comparison Thursday, setting the 1982 rally against today's, and it ain't pretty. Comparing the 1982 Bull Market with the 2009 Rally Rally Comparison 1982 2009 P/E Multiple 8X 26X Dividend Yields 6% below 2% Book Value Discount 2X Premium Monetary Policy Reducing money Increasing money growth and growth and inflation rates inflation rates Fiscal Policy To reduce non- To increase non-defense non-defense spending spending Deficits Peaking and Surging +10% relative to GDP relative to GDP Trade Barriers Were being torn Are being down erected Regulation Deregulation Re-regulation in vogue rising US Dollar Plaza Accord Mercantilist bull market bear market Household Credit Balance sheets & Balance sheets participation contracting rates expanding Tax rates Income, capital Taxes Rising gains and Now dividend taxes declining .... Fiscal policy, deficits, global trade barriers, regulation, the U.S. dollar, household borrowing, taxes...the differences between then and now make 2009's market melt-up almost a Bizarro World version of the Reagan rally. The remarkable contrasts make it almost inconceivable that investors would pay more than three-times as much for stocks today as they did back then. A big part of this phenomenon is attributable to the fact that this is a rally predicated on hopes and dreams, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's. The market is betting on economic and corporate profit improvement six to nine months from now, he says. In other words, it's a faith-based rally, not a fundamental one. "In a rally like this investors act more like Billy Graham than Benjamin Graham," Stovall says. .... Yes, China's already a much bigger deal on a fundamental and economic basis than Japan or the Asian Tiger's ever could have hoped to be, but we wonder if investors aren't overpricing the would-be effects of the Middle Kingdom, if that is indeed the case. We're going to have to go with Maymin -- not to mention Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg, star bank analyst Meredith Whitney and Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini -- on this one. Like the fizzy lifting drink scene in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, we see bubbles, bubbles everywhere -- and fear they are propelling us right into the spinning blades of a fan.
Comparing the 1982 Bull Market with the 2009 Rally Rally Comparison 1982 2009 P/E Multiple 8X 26X Dividend Yields 6% below 2% Book Value Discount 2X Premium Monetary Policy Reducing money Increasing money growth and growth and inflation rates inflation rates Fiscal Policy To reduce non- To increase non-defense non-defense spending spending Deficits Peaking and Surging +10% relative to GDP relative to GDP Trade Barriers Were being torn Are being down erected Regulation Deregulation Re-regulation in vogue rising US Dollar Plaza Accord Mercantilist bull market bear market Household Credit Balance sheets & Balance sheets participation contracting rates expanding Tax rates Income, capital Taxes Rising gains and Now dividend taxes declining
Rally Comparison 1982 2009 P/E Multiple 8X 26X Dividend Yields 6% below 2% Book Value Discount 2X Premium Monetary Policy Reducing money Increasing money growth and growth and inflation rates inflation rates Fiscal Policy To reduce non- To increase non-defense non-defense spending spending Deficits Peaking and Surging +10% relative to GDP relative to GDP Trade Barriers Were being torn Are being down erected Regulation Deregulation Re-regulation in vogue rising US Dollar Plaza Accord Mercantilist bull market bear market Household Credit Balance sheets & Balance sheets participation contracting rates expanding Tax rates Income, capital Taxes Rising gains and Now dividend taxes declining
Fiscal policy, deficits, global trade barriers, regulation, the U.S. dollar, household borrowing, taxes...the differences between then and now make 2009's market melt-up almost a Bizarro World version of the Reagan rally. The remarkable contrasts make it almost inconceivable that investors would pay more than three-times as much for stocks today as they did back then.
A big part of this phenomenon is attributable to the fact that this is a rally predicated on hopes and dreams, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's. The market is betting on economic and corporate profit improvement six to nine months from now, he says. In other words, it's a faith-based rally, not a fundamental one. "In a rally like this investors act more like Billy Graham than Benjamin Graham," Stovall says.
....
Yes, China's already a much bigger deal on a fundamental and economic basis than Japan or the Asian Tiger's ever could have hoped to be, but we wonder if investors aren't overpricing the would-be effects of the Middle Kingdom, if that is indeed the case.
We're going to have to go with Maymin -- not to mention Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg, star bank analyst Meredith Whitney and Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini -- on this one. Like the fizzy lifting drink scene in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, we see bubbles, bubbles everywhere -- and fear they are propelling us right into the spinning blades of a fan.
