The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Maybe the EU doesn't encourage an application from Ukraine because Russia wouldn't like it?
In many discussions, Russian big businesses and their consultants quietly hope for some form of a Ukrainian EU entry, because that would mean backdoor entry for the Russian capital which owns a sizable chunk of Ukrainian one (actually, this is really cross-ownership, links go both ways).
Would the Eastern, Russophone half of Ukraine like an appication for EU membership any more than an aplication for NATO membership?
Overall, Ukraine likes EU much better than NATO: see this graph for EU entry and this one for NATO entry. Regional split on EU entry question is available only in Ukrainian, here. In the last figure, the question is "Should Ukraine enter the EU?", yellow bar is Yes and grey No, lines from top to bottom are for East, South, Center, and West.
Yes, of course the West is more enthusiastic and East less so, but the EU entry is often sold as a package with NATO. It also might mean in respondent's mind that a union with Russia and Belarus is excluded by the EU entry. This book (regretfully, only short excepts and only in Russian are available here) states that 50% of population is for "Eastern" foreign vector, 18% for "Western" and 19% for developing on its own, with "Eastern" dynamics rather stable over time. However, these orientations are not exclusive, as 31% of those wishing to see Ukraine in a union with Russia and Belarus won't mind EU entry, and full 43% of those for EU entry would like to see the union.
So, the conclusion there seems to be: if EU entry would be posed as something that does not exclude close cooperation with Russia, it would be rather easy to generate support of population on 50%+ level.
I mean, seriously, what fraction of the population would be in favour of EU membership, and what fraction of the Duma?
This was part of the thinking behind proposals to have the Kaliningrad District inside the EU (or at least Schengen) before the accession of Poland and the Baltics, too. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The very first bar plot is [Russians'] yes answers over time, which started from 59% in Mar 01, peaked at 73% in June 03, and fell down to 30% in Sep 08. The number opposed didn't move so dramatically, from 19 to 10 to 27% today.
by DoDo - May 20 23 comments
by Nomad - May 10 14 comments
by JakeS - May 15 7 comments
by Metatone - May 14 85 comments
by ARGeezer - May 16 15 comments
by gmoke - May 17 2 comments
by DoDo - May 12 11 comments
by Migeru - May 6 100 comments
by DoDo - May 2023 comments
by gmoke - May 172 comments
by ARGeezer - May 1615 comments
by JakeS - May 157 comments
by Metatone - May 1485 comments
by DoDo - May 1211 comments
by Nomad - May 1014 comments
by Migeru - May 78 comments
by marco - May 782 comments
by Migeru - May 6100 comments
by Ted Welch - May 35 comments
by afew - May 340 comments
by ceebs - May 26 comments
by gmoke - Apr 301 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Apr 3067 comments
by joelado - Apr 2954 comments
by Metatone - Apr 2854 comments
by ATinNM - Apr 275 comments
by ceebs - Apr 265 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Apr 2686 comments