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It's all well and good to question the methodology behind the Dutch numbers.

The point is that, as far as I understand things right now, we couldn't even compare the Dutch example with a French one.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's all well and good to question the methodology behind the Dutch numbers.

Should I start a separate discussion on that with the same question in a top-level comment? It is certainly topical to the diary.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is one thing you could do in France, though, and that would be to look at the Civil Registry and tally the names of newborns and their parents. Though that wouldn't strictly tell you anything about religiosity it would tell you about assimilation.

This tehnique of looking at how given names change within a community has been used by historians to study the process of conversion to/from Islam over the centuries of Muslim presence in Spain from the 8th to the 16th century. Apparently the process of conversion of Christian Roman/Visigothic population to Islam took 200 years and as the Christian Kingdoms expanded southwards conversion of Muslims to Christianity took 200 years as well after Christian conquest. (Source: Richard Fletcher's Moorish Spain, briefly mentioned here).

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any methodological information in the Dutch source?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The graph comes from this pdf with 15 chapters (in Dutch) but methodology is absent.

The English webpage of CBS on methodologies is here but is not worth much. The Dutch one looks very extensive.

Not my cup of tea, though.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I'm trying to find relevant parts. So far I only found out that the numbers come from polls of 5000 people (not from census numbers).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 04:59:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I find chapter 4, sections 1-4 are just about the issue of counting Muslims. They describe the earlier Dutch method of counting based on census, which was indeed based on ethnicity of immigrants and their descendants -- albeit a bit more sophisticated, by including an assumed secularisation rate. They argue it had to be abandoned because the assumption that the ratio of religions among immigrants from one country is the same as for the whole population of the home country was totally off.

Recent estimates are based on those 5000-man polls, and seem to be self-reported. Thus the diagram in your diary is consistent (coming from the same polls). The pdf mentions that the poll method, too, has been criticised: differential willingness to answer pollsters' question could be a factor. They argue that these criticisms are countered by some studies on second-generation immigrants, and that weighting can compensate the effect; however, I am not sure I understood their argument.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:45:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo:
The pdf mentions that the poll method, too, has been criticised: differential willingness to answer pollsters' question could be a factor.
That is a common methodological problem with all surveys, of course.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 05:58:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, and it is heightened when one sub-sample is small (e.g. here Muslim immigrants from a certain country).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They argue that these criticisms are countered by some studies on second-generation immigrants, and that weighting can compensate the effect; however, I am not sure I understood their argument.

To be more explicit: the article seems to imply thst unwillingness or inability (due to language) to answer polls is a problem chiefly among first-generation immigrants. I don't get how studies on the secularisation of second-generation immigrants enables to control that in any way by weighting. But, I only read via Google trnalate -- Nomad, could you read that section (chapter 4, section 3, page 36-37) more thoroughly and 'report' if you 'got' more out of it?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 06:09:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And with how many other available statistics in other countries?

I don't understand this assumption that there are easily-available, reliable, and comparable statistics for everywhere but France, where it's supposedly forbidden to study religion in society.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is the Eurobarometer 66 (2006) which includes the items:
THE PLACE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY
ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY
THE CONTRIBUTION OF IMMIGRANTS TO SOCIETY
and the Eurobarometer 42 (1995) which includes a section on religious beliefs.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 04:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never wrote that, nor assumed it.

The question I posed: can secularisation be tracked in a country where religious groups are not registered, and if so, how could it?

It's an interesting puzzle, and I hoped to learn more about France through it. I don't have the feeling I'm getting anything out of this, though.

by Nomad on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 05:26:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The question I posed: can secularisation be tracked in a country where religious groups are not registered, and if so, how could it?

Sure.  The NZ Census for example asks "what religion do you identify as" and provides a checklist (including "no religion" and "object to state").  And from that simple question, asked over decades, the trend of secularisation in New Zealand is very clear.

Of course, that requires the government to ask about religion, which e.g. the French would object to.  But if they won't, there's nothing stopping a private entity, such as a university social science department, from asking a similar question, or one including a question on whether someone attended a service in the last week.  They'd need a few thousand respondents to get good subsample sizes, but that's not beyond them.  And I'd be surprised if someone isn't doing it...

by IdiotSavant on Thu Nov 5th, 2009 at 09:57:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, in France, non-state affiliated social sciences lab in private universities are very few and far between...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Nov 6th, 2009 at 02:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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