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Given the UK's medieval "first past the post" electoral system, it is quite conceivable that the Tories could yet lose the next General election if the UKIP and the BNP could siphon off c. 20% of the vote that might otherwise go t the Tories.  Thus Davis' proposal is deeply dangerous for Dave - it is little short of a demand for a complete re-negotiation of UK EU membership - and a referendum to secure a mandate for same. Given popular (largely media induced) hostility to the EU, the absence of some kind of EU related referendum from the Tory Manifesto would make this a real danger.

But what happens if the EU responds with a flat NO - which I deeply hope it would do?  What then?  A referendum on withdrawal?  Does Dave really want to go there? The Lisbon Treaty, for the first time, makes explicit provision for a member leaving.  The Tories could simply be shown the door.  And then Scotland might vote for independence to remain inside.  And N. Ireland deeply destabilise. A truly "appalling vista" beckons in the context of impending Sterling and financial collapse.

The Boy Cameron is going to have to grow up.  The UK can't survive a Blair II.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 11:06:20 AM EST
Northern Ireland might decide that it is better off joining Ireland (or Scotland) in some kind of settlement that will continue the devolved powers they have. And N. Ireland and Scotland might adopt the euro.

Also see the discussion in the salon, where ceebs states that a 5% shift (a more likely number) of Tory voters towards the UKIP could bring a hung parliament.

So we have every reason to egg on real eurosceptics to vote UKIP. It's a low-risk, high reward strategy.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But what about the Unionists and their paramilitary BFF?
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is what I meant by de-stabilise - the Peace Process could quickly unravel and the paramilitaries take centre stage.  We really don't want to go there.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I imagine you don't.  In theory, of course, all the lads on all - what ... 27? ... 32? - sides in the Troubles have turned in their guns.  In practice, hardy-har-har; I'm sure there are still "dumps" scattered around.
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're probably rusting away - or being used by drug gangs.  But it is oh so easy to get new ones.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 02:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its about an 8% swing between tories and ukip to neutralise the paramilitaries.  So theres a critical 3% where theyre effetive.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 06:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Given the UK's medieval "first past the post" electoral system"

Hear hear.

But then, we also know that our malevolent dictator (for those who don't know, I am French) has an electoral reform going on that will get France back to the middle ages.

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Nov 4th, 2009 at 01:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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