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ThatBritGuy:

The issue with H1N1 is whether or not it mutates into a killer strain, away from the relatively mild first round strain, which was unpleasant but not particularly fatal.

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how a vaccine designed for a mild strain is supposed to guarantee protection against a much more dangerous strain that may well be significantly different.

From what I have understood the risk of more dangerous strains is proportional to the number of infections (each copy giving a chance for mutation). Mass vaccination that stops the spread by achieving herd immunity (I think 80-90% vaccinated is needed for that) removes the environment where the mutations can takes place.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 10th, 2009 at 05:44:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A swedish kind of death:
achieving herd immunity (I think 80-90% vaccinated is needed for that)
This is a percolation problem and the rate of immunity needed for herd immunity depends on 1) the probability of infection given contact; 2) the average time an individual remains contagious after infection.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 10th, 2009 at 05:55:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought mutation of flu viruses happened mostly in birds?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 10th, 2009 at 05:59:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it happens  in both humans and birds, at a higher rate where you get environmental changes for the virus where it is passing back and forwards between humans and Birds whn they are sharing living spaces.  So once human to human transfer is the main method, the virus mutates at a lower rate and vaccines are vastly more likely to be effective, even if minor changes increase the danger of the virus.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 10th, 2009 at 06:10:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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