I don't think Slovenia will unblock all of the chapters until the arbitration has run its course. And I don't blame them for it. The key is that both parties accept the outcome and we apply appropriate pressure on them to do so once the outcome is there.
The matter isn't very urgent. Croatia can also join in 2013 or 2014, in fact, I'd find that preferable because we can then make a package deal out of it with Serbia and Montenegro, and perhaps Macedonia once the Greeks stop acting like idiots.
The real thing that worries me is organised crime. I don't think we're spending enough attention on it. Organised crime is working fine for Croatia, keeping the violent crime rate in the country very low to focus on the profits to be made by trafficking. It will be very disruptive for the country to deal with it. And I don't see the EU pushing right now. So this situation can blow up in the media shortly before Croatia is due to accede.
Basically Croatia had been asking for arbitration all along and it was the replacement of Sanader with Kosor that somehow allowed Slovenia's Pahor to agree to arbitration too. There is speculation that Kosor being a woman played a role. There are also claims that Kosor agreed to concessions that Sanader would never have, and that the Croatian public or even the Parliament might have objected to them if they had been debated in public.
I am not convinced that a hypothetical Croatia Accession Treaty would be ratified by either Slovenia or Croatia. In Slovenia it could be blocked by either the Parliament or a referendum. In Croatia the Parliament would definitely pass it but a referendum might defeat it. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
What pressure can the EU bring to bear on Slovenia, and more importantly will they?
Come to think of it, what pressure if any was already brought to bear to force them to agree to arbitration in the first place? En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
