The U.S. may have avoided the Japanese disease of prolonged stagnation only to end up with a dose of eurosclerosis: chronically high unemployment in a growing economy.... Persistent European-style unemployment means that the Federal Reserve, which holds its last policy meeting of the year Tuesday and Wednesday, won't raise its benchmark interest rate from near zero through 2010, according to Curtis Arledge, co- head of U.S. fixed income in New York at BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager.
Persistent European-style unemployment means that the Federal Reserve, which holds its last policy meeting of the year Tuesday and Wednesday, won't raise its benchmark interest rate from near zero through 2010, according to Curtis Arledge, co- head of U.S. fixed income in New York at BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager.
Stock prices will continue to rise as companies boost profits by concentrating on cutting costs [read, human labor, payroll] and getting more out of their workers, says Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics in New York. Employee output per hour [read, productivity] rose at an 8.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to the Labor Department, the fastest pace in six years. Rising Corporate Profits Sinai sees profits for the companies making up the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbing by more than 20 percent next year. Third-quarter corporate profits increased 11 percent, the biggest gain since the first three months of 2004, the Commerce Department reported Nov. 24. The S&P 500 has rallied 64 percent to 1,106.41 from a 12-year low in March. Annual economic growth in 2011 will be 2.8 percent, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg News survey -- slower than the average annual rate of 3 percent in the decade before the recession began in December 2007.
Rising Corporate Profits
Sinai sees profits for the companies making up the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbing by more than 20 percent next year. Third-quarter corporate profits increased 11 percent, the biggest gain since the first three months of 2004, the Commerce Department reported Nov. 24. The S&P 500 has rallied 64 percent to 1,106.41 from a 12-year low in March.
Annual economic growth in 2011 will be 2.8 percent, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg News survey -- slower than the average annual rate of 3 percent in the decade before the recession began in December 2007.
Shaving off 0.1 pt delta YoY 2009 - 2010 nominal GNP? That's ballsy. Or imputed inflation, attributable to forecast fed funds rate increase Q4 2010. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
