Display:
 ECONOMY & FINANCE 


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 25th, 2009 at 04:38:35 PM EST
France24 - Eurotunnel blames Eurostar over Channel shutdown

AFP - Eurotunnel on Friday accused Eurostar staff of not following safety rules when evacuating passengers from high speed trains that broke down in the tunnel under the Channel last weekend.

The tunnel operator strongly rejected suggestions that it contributed to the chaos when 2,000 passengers were trapped for a night in five trains that broke down in the tunnel between Britain and France on December 18.

"We have, here and there, been unjustly suspected of not acting as we should have done" after the breakdown, Eurotunnel said in a statement.

Eurotunnel said the time it took to evacuate the passengers "was unfortunately extended because the Eurostar teams, in complete violation of the safety procedures, asked passengers to take their bags with them."



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 25th, 2009 at 04:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fine, they weren't responsible for the developing world-style crisis management in the Chunnel.

But has anyone yet figured out what caused the breakdown in the first place?

La Chine dorme. Laisse la dormir. Quand la Chine s'éveillera, le monde tremblera.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 02:00:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Neoliberalism cause developing-world--style crisis management?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To be fair, finger-pointing would happen between separate departments of an integrated rail company, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:30:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing too specific comes out, but here is my vague theory based on what they say ("condensation on electronic equipment from melted snow"):

  1. snow stuck on the cooler filters on the way from Paris
  2. entering the tunnel, this snow melted
  3. the meltwater got sucked in by the ventillation of the engines
  4. the engines themselves are hot, enough to evaporate the meltwater
  5. somewhere around the ventilation exit, the vapours condensated on ice-cold structural elements
  6. water dripped into unprotected electronic equipment from there

Still, whatever the mechanism, there must have been a recent change to some component -- this didn't happen in 15 years here, nor in long tunnels on high-speed lines in Japan and Germany in 20-40 years.

I'll ask around when I'm back at the job.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:45:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Always good to check comments in the (German-language) Drehscheibe Online Foren.

Only speculation there, but

  • multiple posters insist that a combination of extreme cold and misplaced electronics is enough for condensed, frozen and re-melted water to get to unprotected places (nothing complicated with the ventillation and not even snow is needed), it happened in the past in alpine tunnels;

  • the potential responsibility of Eurotunnel (in cooling the tunnels) came up, but it has been pointed out that Eurotunnel has seawater cooling;

  • one precedent for failures in extreme cold after more than a decaded of service was mentioned: out of a series of 26 Swiss locos built in 1946-48, 20 broke down in the winter of 1962/3, due to blown snow getting into places it shouldn't.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 05:30:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
German President Koehler warns banks in Christmas address | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 25.12.2009
"We have just experienced that excess amongst financial actors, and faults in state oversight have plunged the world into a deep crisis," he said. "We need to understand that money must serve people and cannot be allowed to rule them."


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 25th, 2009 at 04:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet we still need to understand this.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 25th, 2009 at 11:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"We need to understand that money must serve people and cannot be allowed to rule them."

Who is this clown Koehler?  He can't be serious?  Is he totally out of touch with reality?

And there's the old favorite, "What's he smoking?"

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 06:26:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It may be just words, but Horst Köhler is Germany's President.  He was previously head of the International Monetary Fund and before that the Yurpeen Bank for Reconstruction and Development.  He had also been head of the German association of savings banks.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 07:06:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So he gets to say pie-in-the-sky rubbish without us laughing at him?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 07:15:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia Cuts Interest Rates for 10th Time This Year - NYTimes.com

MOSCOW -- Russia's central bank Friday unveiled its 10th interest rate cut of the year, with economists expecting more gradual trims in the coming months as policymakers try to stimulate the country's blighted economy.

The central bank said it is reducing its benchmark refinancing rate to 8.75 percent effective from Monday, from 9 percent. The minimum one-day repo rate will be cut to 6 percent from 6.25 percent.

"The decision to cut rates is expected to soften the factors restraining economic revival and will secure the stability of the growing trend" of gross domestic product," the regulator said in a statement.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 25th, 2009 at 06:32:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brace For Impact: In 2010, Demand For US Fixed Income Has To Increase Elevenfold... Or Else  Zero Hedge

If someone asks you what happened in 2009, the answer is simple - two things. There was a huge credit and liquidity crunch, and then there was Quantitative Easing. The last is the Fed's equivalent of band-aiding a zombied and ponzied corpse, better known as the US economy. It worked for a while, but now the zombie is about to go back into critical, followed by comatose, and lastly, undead (and 401(k)-depleting) condition.

In 2009, total supply of all USD denominated fixed income, net of maturities, declined by $300 billion from $2.05 trillion to $1.75 trillion. This makes sense: the abovementioned crunches stopped the flow of credit from January until well into April, and generally firms were unwilling to demonstrate to the market how clothless they are by hitting the capital markets until well into Q2 if not Q3. What happened was a move so drastic by the Fed, that into November, the worst of the worst High Yield names were freely upsizing dividend recap deals (see CCU) - the very same greed and stupidity that brought us here....

Back to the math... And here is the kicker. Accounting for securities purchased by the Fed, which effectively made the market in the Treasury, the agency and MBS arenas, but also served to "drain duration" from the broader US$ fixed income market, the stunning result is that net issuance in 2009 was only $200 billion. Take a second to digest that.

And while you are lamenting the death of private debt markets, here is precisely what the Fed, the Treasury, and all bank CEOs are doing all their best to keep hidden until they are safely on their private jets heading toward warmer climes: in 2010, the total estimated net issuance across all US$ denominated fixed income classes is expected to increase by 27%, from $1.75 trillion to $2.22 trillion. The culprit: Treasury issuance to keep funding an impossible budget. And, yes, we use the term impossible in its most technical sense....

Out of the $2.22 trillion in expected 2010 issuance, $200 billion will be absorbed by the Fed while QE continues through March. Then the US is on its own: $2.06 trillion will have to find non-Fed originating  demand. To sum up: $200 billion in 2009; $2.1 trillion in 2010. Good luck.


Tyler thinks that China and Japan may have markedly less appetite for US debt in 2010. Perhaps Ben will have to step up and buy most of Tim's new paper.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One more thing from the same link:

Now everyone knows that the average maturity of the UST curve has become a big problem for Tim Geithner: nearly 40% of all marketable debt matures within a year (a percentage that has kept on growing). In fact, the Treasury provided guidance in its November 2009 refunding, in which it stated that it intends "to focus on increasing the average maturity" of its debt after relying heavily on Bill issuance in H2. Once again, we wish Tim the best of luck.


That does look like a lot of maturing bond debt. Can't pay it off very easily, so gotta roll it over. Surely Tim will find someone other than Ben. Make 'em very afraid and they will pay you to keep their money. Is that the plan?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:32:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
financial sorts?

What does it mean to ME?  Hyperinflation?  Run on the banks?  Grocery stores closing down?  People mugging me while I'm on my way to campus?  What?!

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 06:32:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US economy is relying on government stimulus to counter the "recession" and to stave off deflation. By its nature, that money needs to be borrowed. But, in order to stimulate the economy and heal the banks, the Fed is running a Zero Interest Rate Policy, affectionately known as the ZIP, as in "that's what you get for the use of your money." China is grumbling about the decline of the value of their $800 billion of US notes and is unlikely to want to buy all that Tim Giethner will need to issue, so the eternal question arises: "Sell! To Whom?" The Fed could buy them under its Open Market Operations, but there are those who fear that this might be inflationary. But don't worry, there are others who say it will be o.k.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:06:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So what's the worst case scenario for a no kids to worry about, cheap as shit life-style person like myself?  Splitting a gut laughing as I see the idiots who surround me going down the tubes?  Will I run out of chocolate?  (gasp!)  And what about my cat?!

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 03:56:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Imports could get expensive, so you might not find the cat food poisoned with melamine additives from China, nor cheap imported clothing or other consumer goods. Imported oil could get really expensive. If the dollar wrt a basket of other currencies drops to be worth the equivalent of 70 cents of today's value, oil and other imported goods would cost >140% of today's costs.

Food costs will rise, at first due to the increased cost of petroleum based fertilizers and fuels, and later the methods that will evolve to replace current techniques will be more labor intensive and cost more. But this will have the advantage of providing more employment.

If you have retirement income, disability income, unemployment benefits or welfare these will all come under pressure unless real recovery occurs, as tax revenues will remain low while expenses increase. I really don't know. A lot of normal economic functioning is an ongoing confidence game, and that confidence has taken a hit and is likely to take more and bigger hits. Were the Fed to simply step into the gap and print money on a trillion dollar scale so social security and other obligations can be met, including ongoing foreign wars, I can see that being inflationary, but others might argue.

If economic activity continues to drop down to the minimum possible for survival for most folks, prices could continue to drop an we could go into a debt-deflation spiral.  Very bad.  The 30s showed that depression can be accompanied by currency devaluation, which we effectively did in the 30s, going off the gold standard and withdrawing gold coins from circulation, and again in the early 70s when the USA withdrew any gold or silver backing for its currency and let the dollar float.

In a deflationary depression, cash is king, as the price of goods declines, so your cash buys more. But with the miracles of modern economics we might find ourselves with a depreciating currency and collapsing asset prices simultaneously.  Hard to know where to hide or even if you can.

The State of California is in serious fiscal distress and has already raised the fees at the UC and CSU systems significantly.  That could result in fewer students for you to tutor. It is the State of California that is on the hook for retirements for the people who have Calpers, and the state had to pony up an additional few billion this year, as Calper's portfoolio declined by >30% last year this time and some of it was in oil futures that collapsed in July of '08, etc. All private pensions are in similar straits.

Just consider that you have a seat at The Resturant At The End Of The Universe and are getting to watch others disintegrate while hoping for someone to get working the time machine that will take you back well before the end arrives for you.  But you know how it is with time machines. Just when you need one the most.....    

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 05:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My living situation is unique, so as I read through your scenarios, even though there is no such thing as being "bullet proof", I don't feel "over exposed".

Interesting thing about tutoring.  I draw upon three colleges/universities for students: Sac State, Sac City, and American River.  A reasonable estimate of the student population taking a chemistry course in any semester is 2000, and I only need 10 - 15 students per semester to fill all of my time.  Plus these people think they have futures in "health care" so I'm looked on as a good investment.

Thank You!

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just consider that you have a seat at The Resturant At The End Of The Universe and are getting to watch others disintegrate while hoping for someone to get working the time machine that will take you back well before the end arrives for you.  But you know how it is with time machines. Just when you need one the most.....

I was just doing other things and this final statement of yours came to mind.  And I realized that I may be here to answer the question, "If a species has the ability to harness nuclear power/weapons and avoids blowing itself up, is it in the clear?  Will it develop into a responsible species?  Or in this case, will it destroy itself by destroying its biosphere?"  Now that would be ironic.  Dodge the nuclear bullet only to succumb to greed/corruption.  

And that time machine?  I have one and it doesn't depend upon anything other than my body ceasing to function.  Then what?  Just waiting to find out.


In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 06:42:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Madrid unveils plans for financial district to rival City of London - Telegraph
Madrid has unveiled plans for a new high-rise financial centre to rival the City of London or Canary Wharf.

The ambitious building project will see the skyline to the north of the Spanish capital transformed with the addition of 20 skyscrapers including four towers over 60 storey's high.

The initial stage of the project - dubbed "Operation Chamartin" - was given the green light last month (NOV) by authorities in the capital who have earmarked 11 billion euros investment to see to completion.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:48:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gah. This after Santander and Telefonica moved their headquarters to the outskirts of the city and BBVA is rumoured to be planning to do the same.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do they plan to cut rent and local tax and relax financial regulations to attract companies?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:28:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no idea, but all the local and regional government in Madrid know how to do is expensive construction projects. Such as This.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 05:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the end of the Telegraph article:
It is hoped that the new district will tempt established businesses to make the move north from the centre of Madrid freeing up space downtown and easing congestion on the city's roads.

But some are already questioning the wisdom of constructing yet more office developments and private housing when so many premises already stand empty as Spain's struggles with the economic crisis.

Four new tower blocks completed near Chamartin last year still have floors of office space available and several hundred thousand new build residences remain unsold across the capital.



En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 05:22:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Next Spain will follow China and build whole new cities that will stand vacant. Will they never understand that they have to build things that are needed for the spending to help, rather than hurt, the economy? The ultimate Public-Private-Partnership: private companies build towers with public money and, if they cannot be sold or rented profitably, the public gets to burn itself--and it will all be the fault of government. See.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 06:04:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yup, call it getting 'do-buybai'd'!

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 08:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do they need to build skyscrapers ? I can understand it in New York and London, both of which are geographilcally large cities with very high ground rents, but it makes no sense in a relatively small city such as Madrid which is surrounded by empty land.

This is just building penis substitutes aka as al-qaeda targets.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 07:48:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Relatively small city surrouned by empty land? Maybe 30 years ago...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 03:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poland's first Ferrari dealership to open - Telegraph
Twenty years after Poland ditched the dowdy austerity of communism the country will welcome Ferrari's prancing horse with the opening of the glamorous sports car company's first showroom in the country.

The showroom, due to open next year on Warsaw's premiere shopping street, will offer Polish car enthusiasts a chance to tap into an Italian line of luxury once inconceivable for a country that became synonymous with poverty and shortages during the dark days of socialism.

But with the Polish economy, buoyed by foreign investment and EU membership, now rapidly catching up on those in the west, Ferrari feel that the time is ripe to set up shop.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:49:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Twenty years after Poland ditched the dowdy austerity of communism the country will welcome Ferrari's prancing horse

Ugh, what an intro. Nolw, let us guess how many Poles saw the even more dowdry austerity of austerity reforms, and how many will buy Ferraris...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just like the Big Mac Index was used as a stand-in for Purchasing Power Parity, maybe a "Ferrari Index" would be a good proxy for the Gini index...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 04:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France24 - Gazprom says Kiev faces "serious problems" paying for gas
Russian oil giant Gazprom said it believes Ukraine will have difficulties paying for gas shipments, prompting fears of a possible repeat of the New Year gas row between the two countries that led to supply cuts throughout Europe.

AFP- The head of Russian gas giant Gazprom said Friday that Ukraine had cut back on purchases of Russian gas since mid-December and appeared to be facing serious cash problems.
   
"Ukraine is experiencing serious problems with payment," Alexei Miller said on Russia's Vesti channel in comments carried by the Ria-Novosti news agency.
   
Ukraine has until January 11 to pay for gas, according to Gazprom, which has cut off supplies to the country over unpaid bills repeatedly in the past.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 12:57:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Trojan Horse Boogey Man | The Agonist

Couple of different issues at play here. Yes, Turkey has been trying to gain admittance for quite some time. And the Euros would have been wise to have accepted Turkey 15 years ago. This would have forced the secularists in government to change the economy for the better. And it was a huge missed opportunity, if Europe truly cares about Turkey remaining secular. Here's what happened instead. The Turks grew disillusioned with the secularists and voted for the soft-shoe Islamists to run the country and economy, making what I would call a Faustian bargain, hoping they would fix the economy and not impose their brand of religious politics along with it.

The Turks got an exceptionally strong economic recovery, as I documented during my time there. But they also got the Islamist baggage along with it. And now that the economy threatens to head south in light of the global financial crisis, the Turkish Islamists are using the culture war card to stay in power.

This is a shame. It is also worrisome. Just look at the power the culture war has over the American imagination.
Now, as to Huffington's contention that Turkey isn't a European country. Well, a good 15% of the landmass sits in Europe. So does Istanbul. Of course, that's easy to dismiss. But what isn't is this: Turkey has been an integral partner in the European state system since the French allied with the Turks several hundred years ago to outflank the Hapsburgs. So, feel free to dismiss Turkey as an "Asian country." But let's not forget history.

...

The Trojan Horse Boogey Man | The Agonist

As I have repeatedly stated in posts about Iran and Turkey: the best way to counter the Islamists is to engage them and play their own game. Tell Turkey, sure, you can join the EU, but remember, hejab in the EU is a no-no. You don't like it, too bad. Moreover, religious tolerance is a key virtue in the EU and a fundamental aspect of the acquis communitiare, and if you can't ratify that, well, you've got no chance of joining the EU. The bottom line here is that the EU has leverage over the Islamists in Turkey it's too pusillanimous to use.

France and other European countries rightfully have serious and well-founded reservations about admitting Turkey into the EU. If Turkey were admitted any Turkish citizen could travel, work and reside in any EU country because they would no longer need a visa. There are Islamist fundamentalist in Turkey as there are in Iraq, Iran, Egypt and other Muslim countries. This would be a security nightmare. The American Administration should butt out of this issue and let the Europeans make their own decisions.

Clearly Huffington has been huffing some glue here. Yes, of course, there are Islamists in Turkey. But not of the virulent al Qeada type. Please. Are there terrorists? Yup, sure are. But they are Kurds. A people who speak an Indo-European language who value secularism just as much as the secular Turks and Europeans do. Again, the Kurdish issue is more leverage the EU could and has used. But I do agree with Huffington in that the US should butt out.



~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Dec 26th, 2009 at 01:41:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series