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Weak U.S. home sales show recovery's shakiness | Reuters

BOSTON (Reuters) - The unexpected sharp drop in new home sales in the United States last month, coupled with rising mortgage delinquency rates, illustrates the delicacy of the current economic recovery after a brutal downturn.

The bursting of the housing bubble -- which had been inflated by a lax credit environment -- set off the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

While the economy shows signs of bottoming out, the surprise 11.3 percent drop in new home sales in November suggests Americans are still treading cautiously around major purchases, with recovery still tied to government money, analysts and investors said on Wednesday.

"Many people are looking at the rally in the stock market as a typical V-shaped recovery, that what worked before is going to work again," said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services, a money manager in Sacramento, California. "They are not taking into account the demographic cycle that is changing. The biggest thing going on is you have an aging demographic turning from net spenders to net savers."

Retirement-age Americans, many of whom have seen the value of their savings decimated by the drop in stock and house prices, are selling the large homes they raised their families in and buying smaller, more affordable dwellings.

The Dow Jones U.S. homebuilders index was flat on Wednesday after running up 10 percent over the previous five trading days, sharply outpacing the 1 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 23rd, 2009 at 03:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why was it unexpected?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Dec 23rd, 2009 at 11:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because we're back to Business As Usual. Don't you know anything?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Dec 24th, 2009 at 02:45:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess I'm out of touch. I'm in Israel, where the economy is in great shape, the dollar and the Euro, let alone the pound, are all going down. Does anybody know more about what is really going on here?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Dec 24th, 2009 at 06:39:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Settlement building + most of youth is conscripted in the army = lots of jobs. Practically half of Israeli GDP consists of subsidies from USA.

It'd be pretty damn hard to have a recession in such an environment.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Dec 24th, 2009 at 08:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure that's part of it (as well as the large child support payments to the Ultra-Orthodox), but being so close to the U.S. should also expose you to the problems of the U.S. The real estate market is still doing fine, largely with purchases by foreigners for homes to retire to and wait for the Messiah (some parts of Jerusalem are nearly ghost towns as a result), and one would expect that that would come to a stop once they run out of money, but that hasn't happened.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Dec 24th, 2009 at 09:09:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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