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It is becoming clearer to me that the US strategy in Afghanistan is going to be an Iraq II.  The obvious above the table part is composed of a "surge" and, of course, the training of the armed forces.  However, the [largely] unspoken counterpart of all that is the pay off of war lords patterned on the "Awakening" or "Sons of Iraq" strategy which was decisive in lowering the level of violence [somewhat] in Iraq.

So why not just avoid the escalation with its accompanying bloodletting and devote those funds to paying off the Afghan war lords (and the Taliban) right now?  Put then on the CIA payroll right now and have them hunt for Bin Laden, while they're at it.  It think it would make a heck of a lot of sense from a costs benefits point of view.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 11:08:40 AM EST
maracatu:
So why not just avoid the escalation with its accompanying bloodletting and devote those funds to paying off the Afghan war lords (and the Taliban) right now?

One way to to this might be for the US to implement policies that guarantee top prices for opium products.

Oh wait...

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 11:47:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Foreign policy is domestic: what matters is the political effect at home, not the practical effects abroad. This is also true of most military policy.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 11:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ouch.

But shouldn't Afghanistan be etched on the grinder?

You could make this really bad by drawing Obama as a butcher pouring GIs into the grinder...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Afghanistan cast in raised letters on the grinder and 30,000 US troops for the label under the down arrow.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it is the sausage-making process, so you might as well just grind up the health care money with the GIs. Opium-flavored sausage, delicious, and so good for you too.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:37:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wonder how long it will take before that idea shows up on a progressive site.  Great one.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:41:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US is already paying off the Taliban to keep them from attacking its convoys. It is already funding local narco-trafficking militias with personal ties to the government through its secret service. SNAFU, and all that.

I think the new initiative of McChrystal is overplayed. I don't think they're going to implement a direct analogue to the 'sons of Iraq' strategy. It's possible that this is just a tool to pressure the Afghan government to play along. And otherwise, the surge can still make sense from a push-pull perspective.

The problem is the fucked up nature of the government and the secret ops that have already been ongoing, as well as the wrongheaded focus on the drug side of the equation. The strategy would be much simpler for the US military if it got into the trade itself (officially).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:31:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, legalize opium, regulate it and list it on the commodity markets. It could also serve as a new store of wealth for those concerned about the dollar. At least if one took physical possession of the opium it would have intrinsic value for deadening the pain of the economy.

If religion be the opiate of masses, what then be opium?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 12:38:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...the religion of the masses?

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 08:09:57 PM EST
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At least it has the benefit of being exactly what he said he'd do 3 years ago.

the problem is that I can't work out what it's supposed to achieve. I read somewhere that for counter-insurgency tactics to work they'd need half a million troops in Afghnistan, let alone what they need for Pakistan. Going from 70 - 100 thousand is not a useful gesture, it's simply putting more troops into harms way. They have spent the last 7 years teaching the Taliban effective ways to fight the NATO troops who are stuck at the end of a ridiculously long and fragile supply train. Casualties have been rising considerably and now we are giving them more targets to aim at.

Afghanistan is a political problem, not a military one. Obama may have punted on the military issue, but he hasn't even begun to realistically address the political issue. Viceroys do not cut it. What is the strategy ? What is the military there to achieve ? What is the endpoint ? what are the waypoints that can reliably dictate interim tactics ? Does he know ? Does anyone ? Seriously, has anyone asked these questions and got sensible answers ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 01:57:51 PM EST
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I can't work out what it's supposed to achieve.

Oh, that's easy.  Business for the techno-military complex (ie. surveillance drones, Predators and assorted UAVs)

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 08:16:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To finally end the Apache Wars here in the Southwest, "[General] Miles deployed over 2 dozen heliograph points, coordinating 5,000 soldiers, 500 Apache scouts, 100 Navajo Scouts, and thousands of civilian militia against Geronimo and his twenty-four warriors."

Emphasis added.

The whole thing is just pointless.  The Taliban and AQ live there.  They ain't going anywhere.  Eventually the US will leave and they will still be there.  And when the US leaves the government of Afghanistan will fall.  Again.  

And the Taliban will take-over.  

Again.

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 06:39:37 PM EST
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Oh my!  I've become a Juan Cole clone!

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 08:43:00 PM EST
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