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LibDems polling high enough that they could end-up with 98 to 113 MPs?  They've got 63, IIRC, now.

Or do you mean they'll end up with 35 - 50 after the next election?

With 319 needed to govern, people not enthralled with Brown ...

This could get interesting.

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 03:57:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the LibDems get 98 - 113 seats, we are in a completely new world. However, if I may be so bold as to give a hostage to fortune, there is a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.

I felt that the 63 seats at the last election was a high water mark.

To push on from that they really needed a new leader who was dynamic and able to command the media. But sadly they decided that would be too exciting and so chose Menzies Campbell; who promptly crumbled into inconsequence and the party more or less vanished from view for about 18 months. Realizing this was a bad thing, they replaced him with Nick Clegg, seemingly on the basis that, if the electorate cannot tell him and David Cameron apart, they might get some tory votes by mistake.

Most would conclude that the Lib Dems are gonna struggle to make 50 seats and that 35 would be a good result given their anonimity.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a lib-con pact - albeit an informal one. The lib-dems are more likely to try to distance themselves from the sinking tanker that is NuLab than to offer themselves up as a flotation device, and it might give Cameron an excuse for relative moderation at the expense of some his far-right headbangers.

That's probably the best possible outcome, considering.

But I wouldn't write off an historic Tory landslide. The headbanger shock troops are so very, very angry they're much more motivated than the normal people, and turning out in their tens or hundreds may be enough to swing the key marginals, especially if they can take Mr & Ms Protest Vote with them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True dat. I don't think there's anybody betting against the tories being the largest party. A landslide is possible in the circumstances you describe but I don't yet see the signs of the stars aligning for such an event. It may yet happen, but hung or low majority is my guess

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 04:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lib Dems  at the last election had worked up to a fairly hard limit on their progress,  with the switch between tory and labour vote, the lib dem vote would nead to increase by about 2% just to tread water, when you look at the number of close tory/libdem seats.

I still think that the important  vote with a small  electoral turnout will be the UKIP vote. that has a possibility to throw a spanner in the Tory works.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 05:18:08 PM EST
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True enough.  Seems that the Tory voters are more hungry than anybody else.

Have to find where those headbangers are.  If they are all concentrated in Tory-anyway seats it don't mean much.
Winning seats by 8% is a waste; need to truck some of those voters to other districts.  ;-)

This is, in fact, exactly where national polls fall down for predictive purposes.

by ATinNM on Sun Dec 27th, 2009 at 06:06:28 PM EST
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