Data from here

88 Labour Seats are at or under 5% swing.  With Brown's popularity and the disgust with Labour have to figure these seats are in danger and will, most likely, be lost.  Of these 18 lean LibDem, the rest to the Tories.  That gives the Tories a 263 to 262 or a one seat lead.

There will be a shocker or two, there always is, but these numbers give us a basis for 'winging it' one step further.

Looking at the LibDems, they have 33 seats at 5% or under with 12 right at, or under, 2.05% - roughly 20% of their Parliamentary representative. Ouch.  Give 7 to the Tories - because they are hungry - and it's

L - 262
T - 270
L/D - 74

Which seems too high for the L/Ds 'cuz they're fuck-ups.  So have them lose the Tory-inclined seats in the 2.05% to 3%, another 7 seats and ...

L - 262
T - 277
L/D - 67

Now this is where it's guess time.  

1.  Can the Tories hold seats they won by 2% or less?  That's 33 seats.  With a 9% national lead one has to figure they effectively will either by direct holds or net/net holds by picking up another to balance a loss.  I'm assuming the Tories are hungry for power and will be disciplined voters.

2.  Can the Lib/Dems overcome their suckitude and actually hold onto their seats?  One thing going for them are Labour voters who can't stand NuLabour™ and don't want to vote Tory.  "Vote Lib/Dem!  The lesser of three evils!" shall be their battle cry.  How many?  No idea.  Add some more votes from Tories who will tactically vote for them.  How many?  No idea.  Add these two groups and I'm going to say the Lib/Dems will do better than expected.