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1. To stabilize the system and restore confidence in our markets, for the first time ever federal bank regulators will come together to institute uniform standards to help clean up and strengthen banks, and conduct "stress tests" to ensure the nation's largest banks can withstand a worsening economy. Those banks that need it will be given a capital buffer to ensure they can keep lending to families and businesses until they can attract additional private capital and weather economic downturns.
Perhaps Geithner will present this in more convincing language. If not, here we have a case of the proverbial anchor in aspic. Those "stress tests" had better be good. And banks will be given - yet again - capital that they should lend out again. Except that they have every reason to hang on to whatever capital they can and avoid lending. As for hearing that they can "keep lending to families and businesses"... (shattered jaw on floor).
I don't think this is "the first time ever federal bank regulators will come together to institute uniform standards to help clean up and strenghten banks". To wit:
On March 5, 1933, the day after Roosevelt's inauguration, he called a special session of Congress which instituted a mandatory four-day bank holiday. This act provided for the reopening of banks after federal inspectors had declared them to be financially secure.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 12:23:00 PM EST
How exactly does one defibrillate a bank that fails a stress test, anyway?
by tjbuff (timhess@adelphia.net) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's always the FDIC...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:36:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A kick up the assets?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, the defibrillator that they plan to use seems to be the bulk of the Tarp 2.0 Money.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 02:34:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that that intervention worked, and it is highly unlikely that this pathetic attempt will.
This is tantamount to using antibiotics to treat gangrene. You waste good medicine and the progression of the rot threatens to kill the patient.
There is no substitute for honesty and integrity, starting with acknowledging the true value of "assets."  This would precipitate the collapse of the worst of the institutions that created this mess--NBBooks has listed them elsewhere.  Let Sheila Bair do her work.  This would undoubtedly produce a spasm of selling in the stock and bond markets, but like FDR's actions, it would enable eventual stability in banking.  It is four months past time to deal effectively with this situation.  Financial antibiotics are only serving to spread resistance to the antibiotics.  Time to amputate and cauterize.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The plan requires all banks with more than $100bn in assets to submit to a Federal audit of their balance sheets. Only then they can get a "capital buffer" in the form of "preferred convertible equity".

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:39:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong: Convertible-preferred stock is stock that pays a fixed income but that can be converted to common stock at a fixed price if the common stock is more valuable?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:42:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... an amount of common shares based on the face value of the Preferred shares and the current market value of the common shares.

The terms of the conversion are specific to the specific issue of Preferred shares.

It seems likely that that is the process for retiring the Preferred shares ... the banks have to try to get their common share price up to the point where they can buy back the Preferred shares by swapping them for common shares which the Trustee can sell on the open market.

The Trustee, of course, stands the risk that the bank goes on to fail anyway. That is why a critical point that they have omitted to mention is the dividend rate on the Preferred Shares ... what is the penalty rate over the cost of the Treasury Bills to fund TARP 2.0, and is that a reasonable risk premium over the losses to be expected on Senior Preferred Shares from likely bank failures down the track.

I read that Paulson put a rate of 5% on the Senior Preferred Shares, compared to Buffet putting a rate of 10% on the deal he made to inject equity into one of these big institutions ... I'd be very surprised if Geithner had a rate more like 10% than 5%, and in the meantime the cost of funds has risen.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 02:41:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geitner's dividend rate is "to be determined". On a case-by-case basis, presumably.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 04:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"X% over the most recent 10 year Treasury bond rate"

Done, everyone knows where they stand. "Open and transparent".

It seems like it takes more than a cabinet level post to take the student of Larry Summers away from the Wall Street insider operating assumptions.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 04:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only then...

Only then what? They get a "capital buffer" just because they submitted to the audit, or because the audit says they're OK? If the former, the audit is a pure formality, if the latter, the walking-dead banks will still be walking dead.

In any case, are we to suppose that this audit will do what others have failed to do up to now, evaluate the toxic junk?

 

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 01:59:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you decide you can't value an asset on a balance sheet you might still be able to estimate the exposure and require that that exposure be capitalized. The banks don't have the capital because the whole point is that they used off-balance-sheet vehicles to avoid having to capitalize in the first place.

What exactly is the problem here? Someone has to pronounce the dead banks, dead. And banks with more than $100bn in assets don't get to opt out of the audit of their balance sheets so at least the Federal Government will know what's on those balance sheets.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 02:06:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Tarp 1.0 and Tarp 2.0 ... the Bush administration didn't want to know how bad the problem was, they just wanted to kick the can down the road.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 02:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
banks with more than $100bn in assets don't get to opt out of the audit of their balance sheets so at least the Federal Government will know what's on those balance sheets.
But possibly not what are the off-balance sheet liabilities?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 05:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why then do I have this gnawing fear that the required Federal audit of balance sheets will gloss over or totally ignore off balance sheet liabilities, which is where most of the true black holes have been stashed?  The rule should be that ANY liability not brought forward at the time of the audit shall first be paid with the personal assets of the corporate officers of the institution and then creditors can go pound sand.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 05:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those off-balance-sheet liabilities have come back onto the balance sheets already. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 05:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those off-balance-sheet liabilities have come back onto the balance sheets already.
Some of them, but all?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 05:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Enough of them to make the banks insolvent already...

But, really, I don't think any of those SIVs or off-balance-sheet "conduits" can still be standing after the last 18 months in the money markets.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 06:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I pray you are right.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 07:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
Let Sheila Bair do her work.

is she the washington madam?

:)

~Government budget deficits are not nearly as dangerous as the deficits we have created in vital and complex natural systems.~ Naomi Klein.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 02:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Technically the head of FDIC.  But I take your point.  We should have her and her agency regularly examined for, uhm, disease.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 05:47:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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