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Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 06:43:02 PM EST
I guess I'll be a lone voice in the wilderness and defend US Treasury Secretary Geithner and his Financial Stability Plan.

Now hang on.  For better or worse, I defended Geithner when he was nominated because (1) Brad DeLong vouched for him and (2) I've never heard the man utter a word and thus he's never had a chance to annoy the shit out of me.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 07:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But aside from that, an excellent job, Mig, as always. :D

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2009 at 07:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even those of us who recognize that it is stupid are susceptible to these endless series of panics that mark the "left" and benefit from some calm analysis.
by rootless2 on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:31:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think we're too use to being had, to the point that we scream 'fraud!' as soon as some policy is announced.

As you can see from the comment thread it is still unclear how this is supposed to work in detail, and what the goal of the legislation actually is. But I'm personally on Krugman's "wait and see" camp.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:35:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're going to have to wait and see anyway. And the likelihood is that the banks will have to go bust or be nationalised at some point.

I hope we're not going to have an argument then, along the lines "that's what Geithner meant to happen"/"no it isn't!" ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:42:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When I saw how bitterly Republicans were attacking it. Often they seem to see more clearly than we do what are the important components of a plan.

When Larry Kudlow says that a bank plan is terrible, my instinct is to wonder what brilliant part of it I had not previously noticed.

by rootless2 on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:51:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am on the record predicting most banks in the OECD will be nationalised by year's end. We'll see.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the banks might be "stabilised" and not go bust, but also be unable to lend any more because of the weight of the toxic waste in their balance sheets. We'd go from zombie "dead banks walking" to comatose "live banks not walking". Apart from not lending they would probably be generating very little profit.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 09:56:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Japanese solution - ironic, given how extensively the US pundit class has berated the Japanese for not "doing the right thing" and for showing what one was supposed not to do...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 10:06:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ironic, also, that Bernanke made his name professionally writing about how to avoid "the Japanese solution" and spent a year dropping cash from helicopters trying to implement his theory, and here we are.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 10:21:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com: Roubini: Anglo-Saxon model has failed (9 February 2009)
He also criticised the US and UK approach to bank bail-outs, comparing it with attempts by Japan in the 1990s to solve its banking crisis. "The current US and UK approach may end up looking like the zombie banks of Japan that were never properly restructured and ended up perpetuating the credit crunch and credit freeze," he said.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 06:48:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... understanding all its traditions. I especially like this clear explanation of the new plan.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 02:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geithner might not give them up, but that might be his successor's first assignment.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 11th, 2009 at 11:29:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Geithner proposal is who the "them" is ... if the banks turn out to be unable to service their debt and senior preferred shares, then the recourse is to convert senior preferred shares to common shares to dilute the equity of the shareholders.

The solution to not having enough money to pull toxic assets out of the system to get enough of the toxic assets out of the hands of all of the big money center banks to ensure that they can continue to act as big money center banks ... rather than the alternate view of the task at hand, in the terms of ensuring a sufficient subsystem of non-zombie banks to be able to provide the finance sector services required by Main Street if there is a recovery in 2010 or 2011 ... is to subsidize the acquisition of toxic assets by speculators.

The "them" he is not giving up is the senior management and overpaid specialists for the big money center banks. And, seemingly, he continues to view a main function of the banking system to act as a middleman between financial individuals and financial markets, with hundreds of billions of dollars under his direct control to be aimed at socializing losses so that the process can continue.

IOW, the people that have to be the main target of any hidden nationalization of the banking system aimed at ensuring that what was once its primary function (but which it "outgrew" over the past thirty years in the "market centric" Anglo disease countries) is not sacrificed to acting as a middleman between wealthy individuals and financial markets.

However, bank shareholders ... many of them, indirectly, small individuals and small business via the pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors providing "Main Street" financial services ... well, if it goes pear shaped, they can take a haircut. You gotta have your priorities, after all.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Feb 12th, 2009 at 07:10:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Geithner's ultimate goal seems to be to restart the loan securitisation engine... I don't think that can happen, and I hope if it could happen it will be stopped by the likes of Rep Capuano (D - Mass).

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 12th, 2009 at 08:10:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... the basic depository institution function is a "money engine" ... acting as a depository institution whose liabilities function as money allows the depository institution to create new liabilities to finance new lending (with fiat currency reserve requirements acting as a governor on the process).

The financial middleman function, on the other hand, is not an engine, but just a transmission.

But if you the textbooks for Money and Banking ... even the so-called "New Keynesian" textbooks ... the role of the Finance Sector is the middleman function, and even though there are chapters that describe the money creating function of depository instituutions in some detail, the fact that this is not a financial middleman function and so the depository institutions are more than simply middlemen ...

... well, that is not in there.

And we have raised more than a generation of college students going into the finance sector on this blinkered monetarist view of the finance sector, that money is somehow dropped on the economy by heicopters and banks are supposed to be just one more type of financial middleman.

It could well be that Geitner in reality simply does not know that he is working on fixing the oversized monetary transmission when the problem is that the monetary engine is not only broken, but is a too small engine trying to drive a too large transmission to make an effective drive train.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 07:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gah!
And we have raised more than a generation of college students going into the finance sector on this blinkered monetarist view of the finance sector, that money is somehow dropped on the economy by heicopters and banks are supposed to be just one more type of financial middleman.
The structural problem seems to be that just about anyone with some schooling in economics in the last 30 years (and that would mean just about anyone under 50 with some schooling in economics) has a blinkered monetarist view of the economy (let alone of the finance sector). And what makes this even worse is the masses of people who have just had a one-time "introduction to economics" course or have read some "economics explains everything" paperback from some airport newsstand. Because it makes it harder for heterodox economists like yourself to get your point across as you don't only have to explain things but you have to get people to unlearn what they think they know.

In other words, even if a group of heterodox economists led a revolution, the slightly educated masses wouldn't follow.

A little learning is a dangerous thing.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 07:18:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... that make the wrecklist at Agent Orange, and never any Econ diaries. "Saving" as adding to a Dragon's Hoard that will increase societies real productive capacity when "the time comes to spend it" ... that is even more deeply entrenched than the "gas tax is political suicide" meme.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 12:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Saving" as adding to a Dragon's Hoard that will increase societies real productive capacity when "the time comes to spend it" ... that is even more deeply entrenched than the "gas tax is political suicide" meme.
I'll dig up Keynes' rather short demolition of that in The General Theory...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 12:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... demolished, readers have to be in a mood to permit concepts to be demolished in order to avoid the, "well, there's a plausible sounding bit of bullshit" reaction.

And of course, Agent Orange is designed to avoid undermining people's basic prejudices.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 12:55:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... with a diary about how stupid John Boehner (R-OH) is to be complaining about the $8b for HSR, claiming it was a pet project for Harry Reid to get a bullet train from Las Vegas to Hollywood, when the money is for designated HSR corridor, of which there are TWO here in Boehner's home state of Ohio and NONE in Nevada.

You're From Ohio, You Idiot, Don't Screw With Our Train

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Feb 14th, 2009 at 09:50:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
File this under vague suspicions clarified and confirmed.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 12th, 2009 at 02:34:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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