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ooohh that block chart on job losses is scary looking, like boots or pistons stomping down down down

Around here (mid-New England) the housing bubble started puffing up in mid-2003, and crapped out about Jan-Feb 2006.  To me that is when the crisis started.  I associate it with the falling of house prices, because I knew that at that point there was no where for house prices to go but down.  I thought they would go back to mid-2003 three levels, and I would say they have reached that point just now (if that is helpful for someone).  My guess is that they will overshoot on the downside somewhat as all the foreclosures process through (and of course current rampant job losses will hinder "recovery"), and then it will be a matter of each neighborhood and each particular house with its unique features and location finding its own price level based on reality.  No more of this 3 bedroom ranch house with a garage, therefore it costs xxx.  Back during the crazy peak house prices were divorced from reality.  It has taken a long time for the reality of real estate prices to steep through the market, and of course for those who don't have to sell, they can hold on to their delusions.  

Obviously to me this crisis is/was all based on the deceptions and excesses in the housing markets, because of the near zero mortgage rates and the clever tricks of the non-bank mortgage companies.  I don't really blame banks as much as I do the fly-by-nights, but of course, they've long flown, while the banks have stuck around for the flogging (if it ever comes).  And I am a fan of local banks, particularly credit unions.

by jjellin on Thu Feb 12th, 2009 at 04:30:35 PM EST
The vast majority of the bottom 8,000 banks are likely to be found to be largely blameless.  I plan to have discussions with two local bank v.p.s asap on this subject.  My guess is that the top 100 banking institutions in the USA share >99% of the banking culpability, with probably 90% belonging to the top 10.  If we could just get the top ten safely in the ground, with stakes through their hearts, recovery could begin.  I suspect that these guys will agree.  Their banks were conservatively run and are now making loans and advertising the availability of loans.  The whole non-bank "mortgage origination" and "mortgage broker" business was a creation of the de-regulators.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 12th, 2009 at 11:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole non-bank "mortgage origination" and "mortgage broker" business was a creation of the de-regulators.
Right. The smaller banks didn't have the wherewithal (or the motivation) to get the mortgage brokerage business industry started.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 03:35:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's funny, because in Denmark it's been the other way around: The big banks are not (yet) in really serious trouble (that we know about). Oh, Danske Bank took a pretty nasty hit from its foreign loans last quarter, but it's still just equity (i.e. shareholders) getting burned. Insolvency does not appear (caveat lector: appear) to be on the horizon for the big boys.

Whereas several of the smaller and mid-sized banks went totally apeshit over the housing bubble and are now being quietly - and in one or two cases not so quietly - dismantled.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 11:12:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From mid-New England? Then you're not very far away from Capuano's constituency.



Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 03:40:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am about 35 miles (as the crow flies) to the west of Capuano right now.  But I did live in his area for a short time many years ago when I was in my early 20s, so I know Somerville/Medford.  

That was an excellent little speech he gave, btw.

by jjellin on Fri Feb 13th, 2009 at 04:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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