Around here (mid-New England) the housing bubble started puffing up in mid-2003, and crapped out about Jan-Feb 2006. To me that is when the crisis started. I associate it with the falling of house prices, because I knew that at that point there was no where for house prices to go but down. I thought they would go back to mid-2003 three levels, and I would say they have reached that point just now (if that is helpful for someone). My guess is that they will overshoot on the downside somewhat as all the foreclosures process through (and of course current rampant job losses will hinder "recovery"), and then it will be a matter of each neighborhood and each particular house with its unique features and location finding its own price level based on reality. No more of this 3 bedroom ranch house with a garage, therefore it costs xxx. Back during the crazy peak house prices were divorced from reality. It has taken a long time for the reality of real estate prices to steep through the market, and of course for those who don't have to sell, they can hold on to their delusions.
Obviously to me this crisis is/was all based on the deceptions and excesses in the housing markets, because of the near zero mortgage rates and the clever tricks of the non-bank mortgage companies. I don't really blame banks as much as I do the fly-by-nights, but of course, they've long flown, while the banks have stuck around for the flogging (if it ever comes). And I am a fan of local banks, particularly credit unions.
The whole non-bank "mortgage origination" and "mortgage broker" business was a creation of the de-regulators.
Whereas several of the smaller and mid-sized banks went totally apeshit over the housing bubble and are now being quietly - and in one or two cases not so quietly - dismantled.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
That was an excellent little speech he gave, btw.