Display:
ECONOMY & FINANCE
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 03:55:49 PM EST
Financial crisis tests European Commission authority - EUobserver

EU economy commissioner Joaquin Almunia will this week name the first group of states to receive disciplinary action by Brussels for breaching the rules underpinning the euro.

Ahead of Wednesday's (18 January) move, the commissioner insisted that member states adhere to the Stability and Growth Pact, which requires that countries keep their budget deficits below three percent of GDP.

The headquarters of the European Commission - the guardian of the EU rulebook

"The rules were established for everybody and must be respected," he said before a debate in the European Parliament on Monday.

"What they say as far as budget discipline is concerned is clear: In the case where countries have recorded or plan deficits above the three percent barrier, we must launch procedures established in the [EU] treaty," he added.

Of the countries up for review on Wednesday, France, Spain and Greece are expected to attract excessive deficit action from the commission, according to draft documents seen by Reuters.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 03:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fear of GM Job Cuts in Europe: German Government Considers Stake in Carmaker Opel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The German government is considering taking a stake in General Motors subsidiary Opel to prevent mass layoffs expected to be part of the American automobile giant's looming restructuring. Trade unions are calling for a spin-off, but the issue has sparked a political row.

 The production line at Opel's modern plant in Eisenach, eastern Germany. Germany's political parties are embroiled in a row about whether the government should take a stake in carmaker Opel, which faces possible mass redundancies and plant closures under a global restructuring by its parent company General Motors due to be presented later on Tuesday.

The labor leaders of GM's European subsidiaries -- Opel, Vauxhall in Britain and Saab in Sweden -- on Monday demanded a spin-off of their brands rather than face what they called potentially fatal cost-cutting in Europe by GM.

"The spin-off of Opel/Vauxhall ... and the spin-off of Saab is the only reasonable and feasible option for General Motors which would not destroy the European operations and its European assets and could avoid lawsuits," said a statement on the labor force's Web site.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 04:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Warning as UK heads for deflation | Business | guardian.co.uk

Politicians and analysts have warned that Britain is on the verge of deflation after economic data released this morning showed that living costs are rising at their lowest rate in almost 50 years.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that the retail prices index, which includes mortgage costs, fell to just 0.1% in January following the recent falls in interest rates and cheaper fuel. This is the lowest RPI level since March 1960, and it is expected to enter negative territory soon.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said inflation was now "virtually disappearing" as a threat to families, although this might not be obvious to those facing higher council tax bills.

"It is becoming clear that for the foreseeable future there is a higher risk of deflation than inflation, which is why it is inevitable and sensible that the Bank of England should be moving towards expansion of credit and the money supply directly," said Cable.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 04:08:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...this might not be obvious to those facing higher council tax bills.

And energy costs, which are up by an impressive percentage on last year.

Petrol prices are creeping up again too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 06:13:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Europe | Russia cuts 2014 Olympics budget

Russia has cut its budget for hosting the 2014 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi by 15%, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak has said.

Mr Kozak said an assessment of construction projects found it would be possible to save about $8.3bn (£5.8bn), according to the Interfax news agency.

Russia has been hit hard by the global financial and economic crises after years of soaring economic growth.

The 2009 budget is expected to show its first deficit in about a decade.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 04:09:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the difference between Iceland and Ireland? One letter and 6 months.
by vbo on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 07:45:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, about 7 weeks to go?
by det on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 02:58:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here, in pdf, is an analysis of the Iceland financial crises by Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics and Bylfi Zoega, Univeristy of Iceland and Birkbeck College.

From the paper:

The government deregulated and privatized the banking system in the late 1990s and 3arly 2000s.  The banks passed into the hand of individuals with little experience in modern banking, with then porceeded to take advantage of ample capitalin international markets to fuel a high degree of leverage and exponential growth.

In effect, the country decided to stake its economic future on international banking, without have the necessary safeguards in place, eventually developing a banking system mucy beyond the ability of the state to come to its help with liquidity or solvency support.

Apparently Anglo-Disease is virulent.

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 17th, 2009 at 11:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Greenspan Says U.S. May Not Be Doing Enough to Promote Recovery
Responding to questions after the speech, Greenspan blamed insufficient regulatory oversight in part for failing to recognize the degree of risk that was accumulating in the banking system.

"The regulatory structures, especially internationally, were way behind the curve," he said.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 03:52:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
California prostitutes took to the streets complaining that Obama is not doing enough to promote teenage virginity.  Film at eleven.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 06:06:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And please (!) don't ask me for a link.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 06:07:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Steven Pearlstein - The Laissez-Fairest of Them All - washingtonpost.com

There was, for example, [Greenspan's] work on behalf of Lincoln Savings and Loan seeking permission for thrifts to branch out from boring old home loans to invest directly in commercial real estate ventures. Greenspan told Congress such powers were "essential for the financial stability and survival of the savings and loan industry." Congress agreed, but this first bit of financial deregulation spawned a crisis that nearly wiped out the industry, cost taxpayers more than $100 billion and landed Lincoln's top executive in prison.

Once installed at the Fed, Greenspan immediately began pushing Congress to repeal the Depression-era law that prevented banks from competing with investment banks in underwriting stocks and bonds. When Congress dallied, he used the Fed's supervisory authority to allow banks to circumvent the law and usher in the era of the megabank. In subsequent actions as bank regulator, Greenspan never met a merger he didn't like, a "firewall" he didn't trust or a consumer protection initiative he didn't find misguided.

Wanker.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 06:17:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Take this comment to Jerome's front-page post.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 06:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
[Torygraph Alert] Germany may rescue debt-laden EU members (by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 17 Feb 2009)
Germany has acknowledged for the first time that it may have to rescue eurozone states in acute difficulties, marking a radical shift in policy by the anchor nation of Europe's monetary union.

Finance minister Peer Steinbruck said it would be intolerable to let fellow EMU members fall victim to the global financial crisis. "We have a number of countries in the eurozone that are clearly getting into trouble on their payments," he said. "Ireland is in a very difficult situation.

"The euro-region treaties don't foresee any help for insolvent states, but in reality the others would have to rescue those running into difficulty."



Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Next stop: capital controls.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:09:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
capital controls...does that mean countries freezing bank accounts, or new laws about moving cash from country to country in the EU?

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:40:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have thought controls on movement in and out of the Eurozone.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Capital exit taxes. There are several possible scopes for this: national, Eurozone, EU, EEA. The narrower, the easier to do politically but the harder to fit into the EU treaties.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:58:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See Krugman on capital controls (1999).

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 05:03:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Europe

Germany and France may be forced to contemplate the bailout of entire nations rather than just individual banks as European government budgets buckle under the weight of recession.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck became the first senior policy maker to broach the topic this week, saying some of the 16 euro nations are "getting into difficulties" and may need help. French officials are also concerned about market tensions as the cost of insuring Irish, Greek and Spanish debt against default rises to records and bond spreads widen.

The nightmare for Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy is that widening deficits will prompt investors to shun the debt of some countries, sparking a region-wide crisis. While few investors are yet forecasting any defaults, the mere risk of it may prompt the bloc's two richest economies to ignore the European Central Bank and announce their willingness to come to the rescue.

The problem many Eurozone countries face is that they need the ECB to buy their debt in order to provide the cash for fiscal stimulus. Germany, say, could buy Spanish bonds, but up to a limit and this doesn't expand the Eurozone monetary base, just sees money shuffling among Eurozone countries.

Eventually even Germany will run out of funds to help fiscal stimulus in weaker Eurozone economies and the ECB will have to whip out of its monetarist slumber.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:22:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you mean weaker parts of the Eurozone economy?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:37:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Weaker Eurozone treasuries. Fiscal policy is still the preserve on EU member states.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:39:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is clearly an error. Is it even faintly viable in the long-run?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're in a crisis, we'll see what emerges at the other end.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:58:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...and thus, with a whisper, the end of nations was announced.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 07:26:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is still the preserve on of EU member states


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 05:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is no longer predicting doom?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 05:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
he's predicting solidarity.

[Europe.Is.Doomed™ Alert]

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 05:39:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aiieeeeeeeeeee! Not SOLIDARITY! What will we do? Help us!

No, wait, don't help us. That would be bad.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 05:42:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Via Krugman's blog...

WaPo: Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan (February 17, 2009)

They needed an alternative and found it in a previously considered initiative to pair private investments and public loans to try to buy the risky assets and take them off the books of banks. There was one problem: They didn't have enough time to work out many details or consult with others before the plan was supposed to be unveiled.
So, the "public-private partnership" which is the dodgiest part of the whole plan, is supposed to be the "alternative solution" they came up with?
Moreover, the department made a strategic decision to limit input from the financial industry and other outsiders, aiming to prevent leaks and avoid a perception they were designing the plan for the benefit of big banks. But that also meant they were unable to vet their plan with the companies involved or set realistic expectations of what would be announced.
Well, it is a good thing that they didn't consult with current Wall Street insiders, but the fact is that the team is composed of former Treasury and Wall Street insiders.
The team concluded that the financial rescue effort would have to include several components. None would be more vital than an initiative for either removing or neutralizing the distressed assets on the banks of books -- many related to troubled mortgages -- so the banks would be freed to resume lending.
Gah.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:17:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You may appreciate this Inside The Meltdown (US broadcast 17 Feb, VoD ~60 min.) which advertising purported to be an investigative documentary. The ME and I screened it last night, slack-jawed.

How the economy went so bad, so fast and what Bernanke and Paulson didn't see, couldn't stop and weren't able to fix.

Watch it. Putz cameos epitomize the ambivalence of analyses of "insider" knowledge and arbitrages. The directors portray Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner as tragic hereos, defenders of free market entrepreneurial spirit, foes of financial industry regulation intervention nationalization. Many solemn B/W stills disrupt streams of trading mania and testimony by journalists, the avuncular Greenberg, the hubris of Fuld.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 10:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Comment If Free|John Harris|The demise of Smalls of Spilsby holds a lesson for every high street

If only to start with a bit of anti-metropolitanism, let's begin in Hereford: a very average English settlement (population: 50,000), with a centre long since colonised by the usual high-street names. When I moved nearby five years ago, I might have moaned about a typical Clone Town, but I was amazed by the crowds that descended on the place every Saturday. Now the throng is thinning by the week. At the last count, 51 shops had either closed or were about to. This is not unique to Hereford. It's happening just about everywhere. January's retail figures might have shown an upswing driven by crazed discounting, but the underlying picture remains grim: recent research by Experian, the credit information firm, predicted town-centre vacancy rates of 15% by the end of the year, with some places set to come close to 40%.

Quite apart from a simple drop in demand, the current high street crisis says a lot about the economics of the good years, and the risks of letting retail titans gobble up towns with no thought of what might happen when the music stops. One thinks, for example, of quintessentially boom-time commercial leases which mean that rents can only ever go up; and, most crucially, local economies now so dominated by huge firms that large parts of the high street can be imperilled at a stroke - as happened two weeks ago, with the final fall of the UK wing of the Icelandic investment company, Baugur.

There's also a story here about the fate of the few independent shops that our towns and cities managed to sustain. Thanks to the buying up of the high street and the great onslaught of your Tescos and Asdas (now joined, of course, by the recession-boosted likes of Lidl and Aldi), a lot of stand-alone businesses had their takings so blitzed that any bad economic news would quickly push them into the red, and so it proved. Now many wonder whether they will ever come back. Trawl the local press and the imbalance is obvious. The Skegness Standard mourns the loss of a beautifully named local menswear institution called Smalls of Spilsby; the South Devon Herald Express tells of the closure of Rossiters, a 150-year-old family-run department store in Paignton. And the good news? Across the country, there are promises of new jobs at Asda, KFC and the international sandwich empire, Subway.



Money is a sign of Poverty - Culture Saying
by RogueTrooper on Wed Feb 18th, 2009 at 04:19:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series